Sharp NFL Week 5 Picks from Vegas Contest Leaders

Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

The major Las Vegas football betting contests are going strong, with 3,148 entries in the Circa Sports Million, 1,172 entries in the SuperContest, and 72 entries in the high-stakes SuperContest Gold. Every NFL season, leaders in these contests exhibit an incredible ability to make winning NFL picks, and this season is no different. If you’re looking for free NFL betting picks to follow each weekend in the regular season, then you can look to the leaders of these competitions. Here are the picks made by the contest leaders for Week 5.

Do note that these sports betting contests use contest point spreads that are locked in once released and do not change as regular point spreads might change.

Circa Sports Million Leader Picks

Entering Week 5 of the Circa Sports Million, it’s ‘SunnySanDiego-1’ leading the way with a record of 18-1-1. He’s actually 18-2-1 after Thursday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears, though, because he had Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on his card for Week 5. With a lead of 1.5 points coming into the week, ‘SunnySanDiego-1’ has a little bit of a cushion to work with.

In Week 5, ‘SunnySanDiego-1’ has selected the following sides as picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Houston Texans (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Miami Dolphins (+9)
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Tied for second place entering Week 5 are ‘ODBMG-2’ and ‘Red Chip Mafia-2.’ They’re both at 17-3. We’ll look at the Circa Sports Million picks for both of these contestants, but ‘ODBMG-2’ is especially of note given that he has two entries in the Circa Sports Million and two in the Las Vegas SuperContest that are all doing very well to start.

In addition to the entry that’s tied for second place, the ‘ODBMG-1’ entry is 16-4 entering Week 5 of the Circa Sports Million. In the SuperContest, ‘ODBMG2’ leads the field and won the contest’s first Quarter Prize with a record of 18-2. The other SuperContest entry, ‘ODBMG,’ is tied for 14th at 14-6.

In Week 5, ‘ODBMG-2’ is on the following sides in the Circa Sports Million:

Kansas City Chiefs (-12)
Washington Football Team (+7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
New York Giants (+9.5)

In Week 5, ‘Red Chip Mafia-2’ has selected the following sides as picks:

Carolina Panthers (+2)
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (+11.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7)

You’ll notice that among those three entries, there is no pick selected by all three. The Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) shows up on the cards for ‘SunnySanDiego-1’ and ‘ODBMG-2’ and then the Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) show up on the cards for ‘ODBMG-2’ and ‘Red Chip Mafia-2,’ but that’s all the overlap that there is between these three cards.

Circa Sports Million Consensus Report

The most popular Circa Sports Million selection for Week 5 is the Steelers (-7), selected by 1,153 of the 3,148 entries (36.6%). The Cleveland Browns (+1) is the second-most popular selection with 1,035 picks (32.8%). The Steelers are hosting Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5, where the Browns play host to Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts.

Rounding out the top five consensus picks for Week 5 of the Circa Sports Million are the Miami Dolphins (+9) with 879 picks (27.9%), the Minnesota Vikings (+7) with 822 picks (26.1%), and the Carolina Panthers (+2) with 753 picks (23.9%).

In Week 4, the Circa Sports Million consensus top five went 3-2. On the season, the consensus top five has a cumulative record of 10-10.

SuperContest Leader Picks

In the Las Vegas SuperContest, it’s ‘ODBMG2’ on top of the pack with a record of 18-2. He also has the ‘ODBMG’ contest entry that is tied for 15th, so let’s take a look at who he is on in Week 5 of the SuperContest.

In Week 5, ‘ODBMG2’ is on the following sides in the SuperContest:

Houston Texans (-6)
Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
New York Giants (+9.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7)

In Week 5, ‘ODBMG’ has selected the following sides as picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Houston Texans (-6)
Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
New York Giants (+9.5)

SuperContest Gold Leader Picks

In the high-stakes SuperContest Gold, which requires a $5,000 buy-in and has a winner-take-all prize pool, ‘Frankies Force’ was leading the pack entering Week 5. His record was 14-5-1, although defending champion ‘Walter Payton’ did pull into a tie for first place thanks to having the Chicago Bears (+3.5) on the card for Week 5. Let’s take a look at both teams’ selections.

In Week 5, ‘Frankies Force’ is on the following sides in the SuperContest Gold:

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
New York Jets (+7)
Cincinnati Bengals (+12.5)
Miami Dolphins (+8.5)
Minnesota Vikings (+7)

In Week 5, ‘Walter Payton’ has selected the following sides as picks:

Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)
Philadelphia Eagles (+7)
Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

SuperContest and SuperContest Gold Consensus Report

The most popular selection in the SuperContest for Week 5 is the same side as the most popular pick in the Circa Sports Million – it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers (-7). In the SuperContest, 437 of 1,172 entries selected the Steelers (37.2%). The Cleveland Browns (+1.5) were picked 393 times (33.5%) and the Arizona Cardinals (-7) were selected 349 times (29.7%) to round out the top three most popular selections of Week 5.

In the SuperContest Gold, the Browns (+1.5) is the most popular pick of the week, selected by 31 of 72 entries in the contest (43%). The Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) were picked 28 times (39%) and the Minnesota Vikings (+7) were selected 26 times (36%).

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