Sharp NFL Week 4 Picks from Vegas Contest Leaders

Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

Every year, the big Las Vegas football betting contests produce some truly incredible runs by handicappers and 2020 should be no different. If you’re looking for free NFL betting picks to follow each weekend in the regular season, then you can look to the leaders of the Circa Sports Million, SuperContest, and SuperContest Gold competitions. Here are the picks made by the contest leaders for Week 4.

Keep in mind that these sports betting contests use contest point spreads that are locked in once released and do not change as regular point spreads might change.

Circa Sports Million Leader Picks

In the 2020 Circa Sports Million, officially called the Circa Sports Million II, it’s ‘Aaron White-1’ and ‘SunnySanDiego’ tied for first place atop the field of 3,148 entries. Through three weeks, these two are each 13-1-1 with their picks.

In Week 4, ‘Aaron White-1’ is on the following sides:

Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

In Week 4, ‘SunnySanDiego’ has selected the following sides:

Denver Broncos (+1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Minnesota Vikings (+5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Buffalo Bills (-3)

As you can see, ‘SunnySanDiego’ is off to a 1-0 start in Week 4 thanks to selecting the Denver Broncos (+1.5) on Thursday Night Football. The Circa Sports Million rules dictate that ‘SunnySanDiego’ had to submit all five of his selections ahead of Thursday’s kickoff, so he would have been unable to make any changes to his card if news came out Friday or Saturday regarding his other picks.

‘Aaron White-1’ has the Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) on his card and the team’s opponent, the New England Patriots, had Cam Newton test positive for COID-19. The game is going to be postponed. Per Circa Sports Million rules, if the game isn’t played by Tuesday at 2 a.m. PT that week, then selections involving the game will be graded as a push and contestants will receive a one-half point.

The only common selection between the two leaders is the pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5). We’ll see if Tom Brady, without one of his top weapons in Chris Godwin, can come through for them. ‘Aaron White-1’ and ‘SunnySanDiego’ are on opposite sides of the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals that features a QB battle between Gardner Minshew and Joe Burrow.

If you read our Circa Sports Million standings recap from Week 3, then you’ll know ‘ODBMG-1’ and ‘ODBMG-2’ are tied for third place at 13-2. In the SuperContest, ‘ODBMG2’ leads at 13-2 with ‘ODBMG’ tied for fifth at 12-3. It’s likely these contest teams all belong to the same person or group, which means they’re off to quite the start to the season. We can also take a look at who ‘ODBMG-1’ and ‘ODBMG-2’ are on in the Circa Sports Million for Week 4.

In Week 4, ‘ODBMG-1’ is on the following sides:

Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
Buffalo Bills (-3)
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)

In Week 4, ‘ODBMG-2’ has selected the following sides:

Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)

Circa Sports Million Consensus Report

Looking at the Circa Sports Million consensus for Week 4, we can see that the Ravens (-12.5) are the most selected team of the week. Baltimore, who is taking on Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Football Team, were selected by 1,316 of the contest’s 3,148 entries (41.8%).

The second most popular selection of Week 4 was the Detroit Lions (+4.5) who are hosting Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Detroit was selected by 1,107 contestants (35.1%).

The Buccaneers (-6.5), Miami Dolphins (+6), and Buffalo Bills (-3) round out the top five most popular Circa Sports Million picks for Week 4. The Buccaneers were selected 983 times (31.2%), the Dolphins were picked 857 times (27.2%), and 828 contestants (26.3%) are on the Bills.

SuperContest Leader Picks

In the Las Vegas SuperContest, it’s ‘ODBMG2’ and ‘Swami Sez’ tied for first place at 13-2. As we mentioned above, ‘ODBMG2’ is likely the same contestant that has a fair of entries tied for fifth place in the Circa Sports Million.

In Week 4, ‘ODBMG2’ is on the following sides:

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-13)
Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Buffalo Bills (-3)

In Week 4, ‘Swami Sez’ has selected the following sides:

Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Baltimore Ravens (-13)
Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
San Francisco 49ers (-7)

SuperContest Gold Leader Picks

In the high-stakes SuperContest Gold competition, also hosted by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, it’s ‘Walter Payton’ up top. The name may ring a bell because in 2019, it was contestant ‘Walter Payton’ topping the 128-entry field to win the SuperContest Gold’s $585,000 top prize.

The SuperContest Gold uses the same contest point spreads and format as the SuperContest. The difference is that the SuperContest Gold has a $5,000 buy-in (SuperContest is $1,500) and the prize pool is winner-take-all.

In Week 4, ‘Walter Payton’ is on the following sides:

Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Buffalo Bills (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (+7)

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