NFL Week 7 Player Props: Picks for Terry McLaurin, Joe Burrow, and More
Week 7 of the NFL is upon us. Weather will be a factor in two spots. I’m fading the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos game because of the snow and I almost took my top play off the board because of rain. But then I went back and did some research. Light to moderate rain does not impact offensive output very much without the addition of 15-plus mph wind. Winds are expected to be 6-8 mph, so it doesn’t concern me.
Terry McLaurin – Over 73.5 receiving yards
Kicking things off for our NFL Week 7 player prop picks is Terry McLaurin, wide receiver for the Washington Football Team.
McLaurin is the unquestioned alpha dog in the Football Team’s receiving corps. “Scary Terry” is leading his team in air yards (44%), deep targets per game (1.3), and he’s averaging 9.7 targets, 6 receptions, and 81.2 yards receiving per game.
In Week 7, McLaurin faces the Dallas Cowboys, who have a Swiss cheese secondary that has allowed at least one player to get at least 86 receiving yards in each game. The Dallas defense has also allowed five 100-yard games to wide receivers this season.
There is one mild concern here. The forecast calls for rain during the game in the Washington D.C. area but a very slight downgrade because of weather won’t get me to fade McLaurin’s talent and this matchup. This is my conviction play of the week.
Check out McLaurin’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Joe Burrow – Over 283 passing yards
The second NFL player prop pick for Week 7 that we’re on involves Joe Burrow, No. 1 overall pick and quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Burrow takes on a struggling Cleveland Browns defense that is yielding 271 pass yards per game, sixth-worst in the league. The Bengals rookie is attempting the most passes per game among all quarterbacks through six weeks (41) and he’s hit the 300-yard mark in four of his last five starts.
Burrow has terrific talent surrounding him as well. Rookie wide receiver Tee Higgins and veteran pass-catcher Tyler Boyd have been his favorite targets, but last week we saw his connection with A.J. Green finally come to fruition with a stat line of 8 catches for 96 yards. Cincinnati will be without starting running back Joe Mixon, so it’s possible that the Bengals use Gio Bernard and the running backs even more in the passing game.
The one concern I have here is the lack of explosive plays that the Bengals offense is producing, as Burrow is just 2/25 completing throws of 20 or more yards downfield. But this offense relies on precision and yards after the catch. Burrow is PFF’s highest-graded QB in the league on 10-19 yard passes and I think his weapons help him push 300 yards again.
Check out Burrow’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Mike Williams – Over 40.5 receiving yards
Next up, we’re looking at a Mike Williams player prop.
Williams had 8 targets and finished with a line of 5 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first game back after missing time with a hamstring injury. His connection with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert already looks like a strong one.
Now, the Los Angeles Chargers come off the bye to face a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that’s last in the NFL in defensive passing DVOA.
Keenan Allen is still less than 100%. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn says his No. 1 receiver won’t be at full health for the rest of the season, although he expects to play despite a back issue. This could lead to more work for Williams.
The concern here could be the game script. Will the Chargers have to throw the ball much against an inferior team? Quite possibly. Los Angeles notoriously plays to its competition and three of the team’s games have been decided by a field goal while the other two contests were decided by five and seven points. Not a big worry at all.
Check out Williams’ player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Deshaun Watson – Under 20.5 rushing yards
For our final player prop pick of Week 7, we’re looking at Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson will be facing one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL when the Texans line up against the Green Bay Packers defense. When betting the over on QB rushing props, I like to target teams with a good pass rush that might force the quarterback out of the pocket and on the move.
Surprisingly, Houston has not called more designed runs for Watson since Romeo Crennel took over and it’s baffling that the team won’t utilize one of the best assets that the QB possesses.
As far as a concern, it’s entirely possible that Watson breaks off a big run and topples the 20.5 number, but I look for Green Bay to try to keep Watson in the pocket as much as possible and keep this total on the under.
Check out Watson’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.