NFL Week 6 Player Props: Picks for Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and More
It’s time for Week 6 of the NFL, and this week’s NFL player props that we’re on include three players from games with over/under totals of more than 50. Plus, we’re on the under a Lamar Jackson player prop.
The NFL is five weeks in and we now have a sense of how players are fitting into their roles and which injuries are affecting performance. Here are my four NFL player prop picks for Week 6.
James Robinson – 100.5 rushing + receiving yards
For the first NFL Week 6 player prop pick, we’re looking at James Robinson, running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I’m going back to the well on Robinson. It seems that the sportsbooks are starting to realize Robinson’s workload and talent on a weekly basis, but the bookmakers aren’t high enough on him as now he gets to target the worst defense in the NFL, the Detroit Lions.
The Lions are 31st against the run, according to Football Outsiders. They’re also the fourth-worst tackling team and they allow a league-worst 170 rushing yards and another 43 receiving yards per game to running backs. Throw in the second-highest game total of the week at 54.5 and many things are working in Robinson’s favor.
The Jaguars running back has blown past 100 total yards in three of his past four games and he’s averaging 19 touches per game. He’s the bell-cow back on a team that should be able to move the ball. Once again, Robinson is my conviction play this week.
Check out Robinson’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Lamar Jackson – Under 8.5 rushing attempts
For our next NFL player prop pick, it’s time to look at Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.
Jackson did not look healthy in Week 5, when he ran the ball just twice against the Cincinnati Bengals. Jackson missed multiple practices with a sore knee and, while he practiced in full this week, his rushing attempts as a whole are down. Jackson has run the ball 7 or fewer times in three of five games so far.
Looking at some other stats for Jackson, he’s down 37 rushing yards per game from last season and his carries have dropped by 4 carries per game from 2019. He’s also taking more sacks, which makes me believe mobility is an issue.
Although this will be the first truly “mobile” quarterback the Philadelphia Eagles have faced this season, they’ve limited opposing QBs to 3.4 rushing attempts per game. I’m betting against Jackson until he proves me wrong.
Check out Jackson’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Jamison Crowder – Over 65.5 receiving yards
The third NFL player prop pick we’re backing in Week 6 involves Jamison Crowder.
After telling a coworker that I placed this bet, I got a baffled look in return, so let me start with the major concern here. It’s Joe Flacco starting at quarterback for the New York Jets. But here’s my retort.
Crowder is the only reliable offensive weapon on his team. Flacco targeted him 10 times last week, with Crowder grabbing 8 catches.
In just three games played this season, Crowder is sixth in total air yards, he’s gone over 100 yards receiving in all three games, and his workload is consistent no matter who’s under center. Crowder has caught 22 of the 33 targets sent his way.
One thing to watch for in this game is the wind. Right now, it’s projected to be at 15-20 miles per hour with gusts into the upper 20s. I’d wait on placing this bet. The total will fall if the forecast is correct and I still like the play because of my previous reasons, plus Crowder does a ton of his damage after the catch. He’s a YAC daddy.
The Jets are 9-point underdogs this week and somebody is going to have to catch the ball. I’m betting that it’s Crowder.
Check out Crowder’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Patrick Mahomes – Over 305.5 passing yards
The final NFL player prop pick of Week 6 that we’ll discuss is one for Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes doesn’t seem like he’s gotten on track yet and he’s still thrown for 300 or more yards in three of his first five games. The Buffalo Bills have suddenly morphed into an offense-first team, with their defense ranking 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA). Buffalo has given up 300-yard passing games on three occasions so far this season, to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr.
This is Week 6’s highest projected total, coming in at 57.5. I expect a shootout between Mahomes and Josh Allen and 305.5 is a number I’m all over.
Check out Mahomes’ player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.