NFL Week 11 Player Props: Picks for McLaurin, Meyers, and More
Wagering on NFL player props is new and exciting for many of you. Some of us have been doing this for a while, and betting props is still the one edge we have over the sportsbooks as they’ve yet to realize that there are quite a few impressive fantasy and DFS algorithms out there, but let’s get it while we can.
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For my Week 11 plays, I’m backing a New England Patriot, a Washington Football Teamer player, and a Los Angeles Chargers running back. I’m also fading a Chargers wide receiver. Let’s get to it.
Jakobi Meyers – Over 59.5 receiving yards
Cam Newton has found his go-to guy over the past three weeks. Over that period of time, Jakobi Meyers has 31 targets. The Patriots player with the second-most targets over the last three games is Rex Burkhead with 11 total targets.
Meyers owns 59% of the team’s air yards over that span and he’s sixth in the NFL in air yards from weeks 8-10. He’s seemingly always on the field recently as he’s racked up a 98% snap rate.
My concern here is that New England is a run-heavy team playing against one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, but Houston’s pass defense is way below average as well.
I expect Meyers to once again lead his team in targets, catches, and yards. I want to hit his over 4.5 receptions prop, but the juice is too stiff for my liking so I’m sticking with Meyers’ receiving yards prop. This is my conviction play of the week.
Jalen Guyton – Under 2.5 receptions
I believe that the oddsmakers are buying into Jalen Guyton’s 6 targets last week and it’s a mistake.
On the year, the Chargers second-year pro has seen just 25 targets in nine games, averaging 2.78 targets per game. Last week was the first time he recorded more than 2 receptions in a game during his brief career, finishing with 4 receptions.
If there’s a concern, it’s that he ran two more routes and one more target than Mike Williams did last week, but that’s a one-game sample. While I love Guyton’s upside, it comes more from yards after the catch than it does volume.
The Chargers played from behind last week against the Miami Dolphins, but they’re 9.5-point favorites as of this writing and the need to look for Guyton often this week doesn’t seem like a priority to me.
Kalen Ballage – Over 78.5 rushing + receiving yards
I do believe that getting the ball in Kalen Ballage’s hands will be a priority for the Chargers this week. This week, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn said that Ballage is the team’s “primary back” and the recent numbers back that statement up.
Ballage received 73% of the Chargers snaps last week and given that he’s playing on a heavily favored team makes this play juicier.
The Chargers get the New York Jets in Week 11. The Jets are yielding 145 total yards and 6 receptions per game to running backs, so the opportunities to rack up yards will be there. In the past two games, Ballage has 9 targets, catching 7 balls for 49 yards. He’s also averaged 17.5 carries for 68.5 rushing yards over that span. Give me the over.
Terry McLaurin – Anytime TD
Surprisingly, Terry McLaurin’s production has remained steady despite “Captain Checkdown” (Alex Smith) taking over as Washington’s quarterback.
McLaurin leads the league in air yards on the season and he’s second in percentage of team air yards at 46.5%. McLaurin is also getting almost 30% of the team’s targets from 15-20 yards out of the end zone and with his speed, a short pass could lead to him finding the box.
Furthermore, the Cincinnati Bengals are a passing game’s delight, as they’ve surrendered an astonishing 13 passing touchdowns to wide receivers including at least one in every game since Week 1.
Give me a touchdown for McLaurin as one of my favorite bets of the week.