NFL Week 10 Player Props: Picks for Mayfield, Thomas, and More
Take a look at some NFL player props we’re picking for Week 10. This week, we’ll be looking at player props for Evan Engram, Michael Thomas, Baker Mayfield, and Nick Chubb.
I have a daily fantasy sports (DFS) background and it has helped me to make an easy transition to betting player props over the past few years. Both DFS and sports betting require a similar type of research, digging into numbers, trying to find minute advantages, and searching for value. For those of you who have not tried DFS, I recommend that you do so. It’s a natural transition.
With that out of the way, my player props featuring a stud, a dud, and a finally healthy New York Giants tight end.
Evan Engram – Over 3.5 receptions (-115 at William Hill)
The first NFL player prop for Week 10 that caught our eye is one for Evan Engram.
Over the past three weeks, Engram has seen his usage spike. Over his last three games, the Giants tight end has seen 9, 9, and 10 targets to go along with 6, 5, and 5 receptions. He also has 5 or more receptions in four of his last five games.
In Week 7, Engram caught 6 of 9 targets against the same Philadelphia Eagles he’ll see in Week 10.
Philadelphia is abysmal against the tight end position, allowing an 80% completion rate to the position, as well as allowing 6 catches per game on average. The Eagles are also 31st in adjusted fantasy points against the position.
Engram is set up for a nice workload to torch his division rivals again. This player prop is my conviction play of the week.
Check out Engram’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Michael Thomas – Over 64.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Next up is a player prop for arguably the best wide receiver in the league, Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints.
About nine weeks ago, Thomas was considered one of, if not the, best wide receivers in the NFL. After an injury and a fight in practice, Thomas returned after his six-game absence to reel in 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards during the Saints blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Thomas is an elite receiver with a full game under his belt on a team with the second-highest implied team total of the week. This game is in New Orleans and the Saints offense is also more productive at home, averaging almost 2 more points per game in the Superdome.
I do have a mild concern that this game turns into a blowout and we see a repeat of last week’s performance, but I still think the talent, matchup, and potential workload are too much to ignore a reception prop set in the mid-60s.
Check out Thomas’ player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Baker Mayfield – Under 213 passing yards (-110 at William Hill)
The third player prop we’re looking at is one for Baker Mayfield.
The weather forecast calls for “dangerously high winds” roaring from 32-46 miles per hour. I jumped in on this prop at 220 and I’ll recommend it as low as 210 passing yards.
Just two weeks ago against the Las Vegas Raiders, Mayfield went 12-for-25 for 122 yards in winds sitting in the mid-20s.
The game plan will likely be centered around the run game, which gets a huge boost as Nick Chubb returns from injury. Chubb and Kareem Hunt will look to gash a Houston Texans run defense that yields the most rushing yards per game at 159.5.
Mayfield has also failed to reach 200 yards passing in five of eight games this season and although he faces an awful Houston secondary, the conditions are scaring me off this passing game.
Check out Mayfield’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.
Nick Chubb – To score a TD (-112 at DraftKings)
Lastly, we’re sticking with a Browns vs. Texans player prop and looking at Nick Chubb.
In a correlation play, Chubb is back and resumes his role as the Browns lead ball carrier deep in the red zone. Chubb had four carries inside the five-yard line in just over three games before suffering a knee sprain. In contrast, Hunt received four carries in eight games. I expect Chubb to return to his normal role and find his way into the box.
Check out Chubb’s player props page on SharpSide for player props odds comparison, past performance, and more.