NFL Thanksgiving Player Props: Picks for Dalton, Watson, and More

Andy Dalton of the Dallas Cowboys
Andy Dalton of the Dallas Cowboys (photo credit: Imagn/USA TODAY Sports)

It was looking like a juicy three-game slate of NFL games on Thanksgiving Day this year, but we’re now left with just two contests following the league’s decision to move the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens game to Sunday. There are still two games to bet on, though, so all is not lost for the sports gamblers out there. In this article, we’ll identify a few of our favorite NFL player props for Thanksgiving Day.

Deshaun Watson – Over 297.5 passing yards

For as bad as the Houston Texans have been this season, it’s not Deshaun Watson‘s fault. The 25-year-old quarterback has put together an impressive season despite his team’s blunders. Through 10 games, Watson has thrown for 2,883 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His passing yards per game comes out to 288.3, but there’s Houston’s Week 10 game against the Cleveland Browns in there that is a bit of an outlier.

In that Week 10 game, the Texans played in Cleveland and were outside in horrible weather. There wasn’t much passing done at all. If we throw that game out, Watson’s per-game average bumps up to 302.1 passing yards.

The Detroit Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA by FootballOutsiders.com. This game also has one of the higher totals on the board at 51.5, the Texans will be without lead running back David Johnson, and Watson throws the ball more than 30 times per game.

Watson’s passing yards prop is 300.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook and 300.5 (-110) at BetMGM, but you can find over/under 297.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook. We like Watson to hit the 300-yard mark in this matchup against the Lions and we’ll look to book it at FanDuel Sportsbook so we can get a few extra yards of value.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Deshaun Watson – Over 39.5 yards longest pass

With Detroit’s bad pass defense, Watson’s ability as a QB, and both Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks as weapons, this player prop is another one that catches our eye. Fuller and Cooks can both go deep and beat this Lions secondary, and Watson has good vision and throws an excellent deep ball to hit them.

Duke Johnson – Over 25.5 receiving yards

We’ve already laid out that we like the over on Watson’s passing yards player prop, so a bit of a correlation play is to take the over on Duke Johnson‘s receiving yards player prop, which you can find at DraftKings Sports for 25.5 receiving yards at even money.

With no David Johnson and now no Randall Cobb, Duke Johnson should continue to see work in Houston’s passing game. If Detroit is going to be more focused on stopping Watson’s play-making abilities with Fuller and Cooks, Duke Johnson has a solid opportunity to rack up a handful of targets on his way to 30 or more yards.

Watson has also picked up his rushing in recent weeks, as outlined by Kevin Taylor in his betting preview of this game. Along those lines, Watson’s ability to break the pocket and run is something the Lions are going to have to account for. That has the potential to keep the defense a little more focused on Watson while Duke Johnson gets open for some short routes or check-downs.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Terry McLaurin – Over 73.5 receiving yards

Terry McLaurin is flat-out awesome and he’s finding a nice groove with quarterback Alex Smith. In the past four games, McLaurin has averaged 6.5 receptions on 8.75 targets for 96 yards per game.

Like Detroit, the Dallas Cowboys don’t have a good defense. Against the pass, the Cowboys are ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA by FootballOutsiders.com. With McLaurin’s target share in this offense, he should have plenty of opportunities to his the over on 73.5 receiving yards, which available at a price of -110 at BetMGM.

There’s also a chance that this game turns into a little bit of a shootout. Andy Dalton and the Cowboys offense looked good last week when they beat the Minnesota Vikings. The Washington Football Team has an excellent defensive front that can get to Dalton, but if they have a bad game or if Dallas’ offensive line does its job, Dalton and the Dallas weapons have the potential to pick apart Washington’s secondary, which is the weak point of this Washington defense. Should the game turn into a little bit of a shootout, that’s good for McLaurin to hit the over on this player prop.

Even without a shootout, we expect McLaurin to see the lion’s share of targets from Smith and reach 80 receiving yards.

Andy Dalton – To throw an interception

If we wanted to go to narrative-ville, we’d say that when Andy Dalton plays in big, primetime games, he just never seems to perform well. That’s in our mind, but it’s not the main reason why we like Dalton to toss an interception in this game.

As we just mentioned above, Washington has a very good defensive front. The team can rush the passer well and cause a lot of issues for Dalton in the passing game. A strong pass rush and pressure on the quarterback leads to less time to throw, less time for receivers to get open, and more poor decisions by the QB.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Up Next