NFL Super Wild Card Player Props: Ravens at Colts
After an exciting Saturday to kick off NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, the action turns to Sunday, when the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will start off a trio of games. The Titans are hosting the Ravens, but it’s the Ravens who are 3-point favorites on the point spread. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite Ravens vs. Titans player props.
Lamar Jackson – Over 199.5 passing yards
Lamar Jackson isn’t exactly known for his passing ability. He’s known as a dual-threat quarterback who can burst big plays with his legs at any time in a game. While many may be looking at Jackson’s rushing player props for this matchup against the Tennessee Titans, we’re looking at Jackson’s passing yards player prop. You can find the number at 199.5 yards, and that’s the number we’re going to be jumping on the over for.
Jackson isn’t the greatest passer in the league, but he’s capable and has a couple of things going for him in this matchup. The first one is a big one, and it’s that the Titans pass defense is as bad as a pass defense there is in the NFL. The pass rush is non-existent, so Jackson should have all day to stand in the pocket and throw, and the secondary isn’t exactly shutting anyone down.
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The Titans have seen the Ravens plenty of times. In fact, they’ve had the Ravens’ number recently. Mike Vrabel seems to know how to defend the Baltimore offense, which usually means working to stop Baltimore’s rushing attack that is made up of running backs and Jackson. If that’s what the Titans are going to do in order to try and stop the Ravens offense, then Baltimore should go against the grain and let Jackson air it out. As we just pointed out, it’s not like Jackson will be throwing against a good pass defense. Tennessee’s pass defense is ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders.com, and it’s 16th against the run. The Ravens should want to pass on the Titans.
Jackson’s favorite targets are wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. Those two are pretty good, especially Andrews, and they should be able to get open plenty against the Titans defense. Although the whole of Baltimore’s receiving group doesn’t jump off the page, Brown and Andrews are plenty good enough to help Jackson perform well through the air against the Titans.
Derrick Henry – Under 120.5 rushing yards
If you want to stop the Tennessee Titans, you’re going to want to stop Derrick Henry. If Henry’s able to have a big day, the Titans can get rolling in the direction they want in a big way. Baltimore knows this and should be doing everything in its power to force the ball into Ryan Tannehill’s hands, making Tennessee throw more than run.
Is Henry a good running back? Of course he is, but this Henry player prop is set at over/under 120.5 rushing yards. That’s so high. For as good as Henry is and even though he’s had big games against the Ravens recently (133 rushing yards in Week 11 and 195 rushing yards in the playoffs last season), the line is simply too high.
We also expect the Ravens to be able to score against the Titans given how bad the Titans defense is. If that’s the case and Baltimore is able to get out to a lead, Tennessee could certainly abandon the run and go to the passing game.
A line of 120.5 rushing yards, a defense that is going to focus in on Henry, and the opportunity for Tennessee to be trailing are the reasons we like the under on the Derrick Henry player prop.
Ryan Tannehill – Over 237.5 passing yards
As a bit of a correlation play, we’re going to back the over on 237.5 passing yards for this Ryan Tannehill player prop. If Jackson has a good day through the air, or if the Ravens are able to jump out to a lead against this weak Tennessee defense, then the Titans are going to need to score to stay in the game and there’s a good chance they’ll need to do that through the air.
Baltimore should come into this game with a goal to shut down Henry as much as possible, and if the running game isn’t working for Tennessee, then they’re going to need to look elsewhere to move the ball. Tannehill is good enough and has good weapons with A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith that Tennessee’s offense can have success moving the ball through the air against Baltimore. We do need to point out that Brown hasn’t practiced through Friday, but he said in a press conference, “As long as I have breath in my body, I’m going to play.” We’re expecting Brown to go in this one.
We’ve also got to figure that Tennessee will know that Baltimore is ready to stop the run, so the Titans will work in plenty of play-action passing.
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