NFL Super Wild Card Player Props: Colts at Bills

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills (photo credit: Imagn/USA TODAY Sports)

Kicking off the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is a matchup between the No. 2 Buffalo Bills and No. 7 Indianapolis Colts. The Bills are hosting the Colts and are 6.5-point favorites on the point spread. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite Colts vs. Bills player props.

Jonathan Taylor – Over 77.5 rushing yards

If a team wants to attack the Buffalo Bills, it’s better to do so on the ground. During the regular season, the Bills gave up an average of nearly 120 rushing yards per game to opponents and opponents averaged 4.6 yards per carry against them. FootballOutsiders.com has the Bills ranked 17th in rush defense DVOA, which has them sitting 11th among the 14 playoff teams.

Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has really come on lately for the Indianapolis Colts, averaging 123.5 yards per game in the final six games of the season. Included in those six games are a couple of big ones. In Week 14, Taylor ran for 150 yards on 2o carries against the Las Vegas Raiders. In Week 17, he went off for 253 yards on 30 carries against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Only twice in the final six games did Taylor rush for fewer than 90 yards.

Going up against Josh Allen and this Bills offense, the Colts should want to feed their young back early and often, attacking Buffalo’s weak point on defense and keeping the Bills offense off the field as much as possible.

Taylor should be in line to see around 20 or more carries, which should give him plenty of opportunities to hit the over on this player prop.

As a secondary play, taking Taylor to score a touchdown is interesting, but be sure to shop around for the best price. At the time of writing, we’re seeing this player prop at -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook and -120 or worse at others.

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Nyheim Hines – Over 27.5 receiving yards

Nyheim Hines is as capable of a back catching the ball as they come, and he gets plenty of looks in this Colts offense. We expect that the Colts are going to need to scores some points in this one. Even if they’re able to control things with Taylor rushing the ball, Hines presents a nice change of pace.

Hines doesn’t need much to hit the over on 27.5 receiving yards. He has the ability to do it on one play. If he sees his normal 4-5 targets per game, there’s plenty of opportunities for Hines to surpass this total.

Stefon Diggs – Under 90.5 receiving yards

This one is a bit scary, given how good Stefon Diggs is and how well this Bills offense has performed this season. But, the Colts bring a solid defensive into this game and one of the defense’s goals should be to limit Diggs as much as possible.

We will throw a twist into this player prop pick, and it involves another Bills wide receiver, Cole Beasley. Beasley first practiced this week on Thursday and was limited. If Beasley is good to go for this game, it makes us more fans of this under, as long as it stays at 90.5 receiving yards. If Beasley is ruled out, that’s one less option for Allen to go to and could cause him to force the ball to his top WR even more.

It’s the playoffs and Beasley is a tough player, so we’re leaning to him being out there on Saturday, which pushes us to lean under on Diggs’ receiving yards player prop.

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