NFL Super Wild Card Player Props: Browns at Steelers
Closing out NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is a third matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers this season. The two play in the AFC North, so they see each other twice in the regular season. Now, they’ll get a third matchup after just having played last week. The Steelers are hosting the Browns and are 6-point favorites on the point spread. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite Browns vs. Steelers player props.
James Conner – Under 47.5 rushing yards
The Cleveland Browns defense isn’t that good. Outside of Myles Garrett rushing the passer, there just isn’t much there to stop opposing teams, especially when it comes to stopping opponents from passing, which the Pittsburgh Steelers love to do. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Browns rank 25th in pass defense DVOA.
If we know the Steelers don’t like to run the ball and if we know the Browns have a bad pass defense, this leads us to believe that, bingo, the Steelers should be passing a lot in this game. If James Conner isn’t getting a ton of touches, we can’t see him racking up the needed yardage to hit the over on this player prop.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster – Over 58.5 receiving yards
Building off of what we just talked about, if we think the Steelers are going to be passing a lot in this one, it’s only natural to want to look at some of Pittsburgh’s wide receivers for payer props. The player we settled on is JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Smith-Schuster hasn’t had the greatest season, but we’re down to the part of the season when it matters most, and Smith-Schuster is likely Ben Roethlisberger‘s most trusted wide receiver. Roethlisberger has the greatest rapport with Smith-Schuster and has been targeting Smith-Schuster a lot in recent weeks. In a playoff game, look for Roethlisberger to go the way of his trusted WR who has a very palatable over/under receiving prop to hit at 58.5 yards.
Baker Mayfield – Over 235.5 passing yards
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski won’t be on the sidelines for this game due to COVID-19, which puts the Browns in a tough spot. That said, this is more about the volume in the passing game that Baker Mayfield should have.
The Steelers shouldn’t have too much of an issue moving the ball through the air against this Cleveland defense if they’re playing up to their potential. If that happens, the Browns are likely going to need to abandon trying to run the ball and instead look to pass the ball with Mayfield.
One good thing about a low passing yards player prop is that the quarterback doesn’t necessarily need to have a good game to hit the over. There are ways Mayfield can go over the line of 235.5 yards through volume, even though his completion percentage might be low and the Browns aren’t finding the end zone.
Jarvis Landry – Over 53.5 receiving yards
There’s really only one wide receiver on the Browns worth backing in this spot, and that’s Jarvis Landry. Every week he’s healthy, Landry gets a ton of targets and he isn’t one to have many drops. Landry can get yards after the catch, and that’s always a big plus when taking the over on receiving yards for a wide receiver.
If we think the Browns are going to need to throw the ball to try and stay with Pittsburgh in this one, and we do as we outlined with our Mayfield player prop pick, then we should probably also look at his top wideout. That’s Landry.
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