NFL Super Wild Card Player Props: Bears at Saints
The penultimate game of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend sees the No. 2 New Orleans Saints host the No. 7 Chicago Bears. The Saints are big 10-point favorites on the point spread. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite Bears vs. Saints player props.
Drew Brees – Under 267.5 passing yards
If we were to pick our least favorite game of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, this is it. It’s got the largest point spread, so the chance that this one turns into a blowout feels higher than elsewhere, and the two sides just don’t present that exciting of a game. The Chicago Bears are certainly not a sexy team, and while the New Orleans Saints are very good, they just don’t pop offensively to us like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or Green Bay Packers do. Maybe that’s why we’re on the under for this Drew Brees player prop.
When Brees has been on the field for the Saints this season, you can certainly tell he’s aging. The arm strength isn’t there anymore, and because of it, the Saints don’t really pose much of a deep threat. Rather, New Orleans takes more of a death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts approach on offense. The Bears’ defense is good enough that it wouldn’t really allow for the Saints to take big shots down the field if they could, so Brees going over 267.5 passing yards dinking and dunking is a tough way to go about it.
With New Orleans’ more conservative offense that gives the ball to running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray plenty, we’ll back the under on Brees’ player prop of 267.5 passing yards.
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Alvin Kamara – Anytime TD (-190)
We’re paying up for this one, but feel there’s good enough value on Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown at -190 at FanDuel Sportsbook when other books have it priced up around -225. Kamara’s versatile and gets the ball in a ton of opportunities to score, whether it’s with his rushing ability or coming out of the backfield as a receiver.
Mitchell Trubisky – Over 0.5 interceptions (-165)
A lot has been made about Mitchell Trubisky‘s play leading into the playoffs, but if you’re asking us, this is where the train comes to an abrupt halt. That said, this is another player prop we’re going to have to pay up for, as Trubisky to throw an interception is around -165 on the price tag.
There are two important things we look for when taking the over on a QB’s interceptions. First, we like to have a good pass rush on the other side that can disrupt the quarterback. The Saints have a solid pass rush that can get home against Trubisky. The second thing is that we like to have a quarterback who is prone to make bad decisions when under pressure. There are few starting QBs in the NFL that make worse decisions than Trubisky does.
The combination of the Saints’ pass rush and Trubisky’s potential to make bad decisions and throws leads us to believe he’ll toss at least one interception in this one.
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