NFL Player Props Review: News and Notes from Divisional Round
Check out some notable news and notes regarding NFL player props from the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
Josh Allen Held Under
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was held under for both passing yards and rushing yards after he hit the over on these two NFL player props in Buffalo’s first playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts. Against the Colts, Allen threw for 324 yards and rushing for 54 yards, surpassing his totals of 286.5 passing yards and 25.5 rushing yards. In the team’s second playoff game, when they took on the Baltimore Ravens, Allen’s passing yards prop increased to 292.5 and his rushing yards prop was bumped up to 33.5. With 206 passing yards and just 3 rushing yards, Allen came in under on both by quite a wide margin.
Allen and the Bills offense have been steady and aggressive all season long, so we’re not going to freak out over this one game when Allen’s numbers don’t pop off the page. Allen still attempted 37 passes against the Ravens. Devin Singletary had 7 rush attempts and T.J. Yeldon had 2, although Yeldon’s came at the end of the game when the clock was being run out.
Buffalo is still very much a pass-first team, and now they get a date with the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes left Sunday’s game with a concussion, so we’ll need to see how that progresses over the week. We’re still confident in saying that the Bills will be throwing the ball a ton come Sunday, certainly much more than they run. It’s now just a factor of how much more they stay on the gas in the passing game depending on Mahomes’ injury.
View more of Allen’s player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Allen’s favorite target, Stefon Diggs, was cooking once again over the weekend. Diggs had 8 receptions for 106 yards and 1 touchdown, hitting the over on all three player props. He had a receptions line of 7.5, a receiving yards line of 86.5, and was +120 to score a touchdown. If you bet the over on Diggs’ player props, you ate well on Saturday.
View more of Digg’s player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Patrick Mahomes Goes Under Due To Injury
Speaking of Mahomes, he was very much on the way to hitting the over on his player props in Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns, but then he got knocked out with a concussion about halfway through the third quarter.
Mahomes had a passing yards player prop of 323.5 yards, a rushing yards player prop of 16.5 yards, and a passing touchdowns player prop of 2.5 TDs, all of which came in under. When Mahomes left, there was still a quarter and a half of football left and Mahomes had 255 passing yards, 14 rushing yards, and 1 passing TD. He looked very much on his way to hitting the over on passing yards and rushing yards, but passing TDs might’ve come in under. Mahomes did have a rushing TD earlier in the game that allowed him to hit the over on 0.5 rushing touchdowns for a nice +290 hit.
Now that he’s in the concussion protocol, we will sit and wait to see how the week plays out for Mahomes. If he can’t go, Chad Henne will be under center for Kansas City.
View more of Mahomes’ player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Chad Henne Does Well Coming In for Mahomes
Chad Henne is no Patrick Mahomes, but he came in for a quarter and a half of football and helped lead the Chiefs to a victory, going 6-for-8 on passes and throwing for 66 yards. Henne also rushed twice for 12 yards, including a big run on 3rd and 14 to set the Chiefs up with short yardage to go for it on fourth down. On that fourth down, Henne bucked the pressure and completed a 5-yard pass to Tyreek Hill.
If Henne is the one under center for Kansas City in the AFC Championship, he’s not going to have the high player props that Mahomes commonly sees, but let’s not sleep on Henne. He’s still coached by Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy, and he still has Hill, Travis Kelce, and a few other weapons at his disposal. Depending on where Henne’s player props sit, overs could be very worth a look if he’s the one at QB.
View more of Henne’s player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Like Diggs, Kelce hit the over on all three of his player props. Kelce had 8 receptions for 109 yards and 1 touchdown. Kelce had a receptions line of 7.5, a receiving yards line of 87.5, and was -162to score a touchdown.
View more of Kelce’s player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Big Game from Aaron Rodgers
Despite going up against arguably the league’s No. 1 defense in the Los Angeles Rams, Aaron Rodgers threw for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown. With the performance, Rodgers hit the over on a few of his player props. Rodgers’ passing yards prop was 286.5, so he beat it by just under 10 yards. His passing TDs prop was at 1.5 with the over juiced at -189. He hit the over there. Running in a touchdown allowed a +550 player prop to come in.
Next up for Rodgers and the Packers is a date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These two teams met back in Week 5 of the regular season, and Rodgers played pretty bad. He had a completion rate of 45.7%, threw for only 160 passing yards and no touchdowns, and had 2 interceptions. Tampa Bay’s defense was very good in that game, and it’s been good over the whole of the season, but Rodgers could still dice them up and hit some overs, especially if the lines are deflated a little because of the matchup.
View more of Rodgers’ player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
One of the receivers Rodgers tossed a touchdown to against the Rams was his stud wideout Davante Adams, who cashed a -150 prop of over 0.5 TDs. That might seem like a lot of juice, but Adams has been scoring just about every week this season. In the 15 games Adams has played this season, he’s scored at least one touchdown in 12 of them.
View more of Adams’ player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Green Bay running back Aaron Jones also had a solid game on Saturday, rushing for 99 yards and 1 touchdown. He hit the over on 67.5 rushing yards and cashed his touchdown prop for -109. Jones had just 1 reception for 14 yards, so he came under on 3.5 receptions and 23.5 receiving yards.
View more of Jones’ player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
Tom Brady Misses for First Time In Five Weeks
In the four games leading into Sunday’s clash with the New Orleans Saints, Tom Brady has thrown for at least 348 yards in each of them, averaging nearly 380 passing yards per outing in those four. On Sunday against the Saints, Brady didn’t break 300. In fact, he didn’t even break 200 passing yards, throwing for 199. That allowed the under to come in on Brady’s passing yards player prop of 294.5 yards.
Brady had another passing prop of over/under 2.5 passing TDs. He only threw 2, so the under (-202) came in. Brady did cash a +550 player prop for scoring a rushing TD, which he did with a QB sneak in the fourth quarter.
It wasn’t the greatest performance for Brady, but he got the job done and didn’t turn the ball over. Next week, the Buccaneers face off against Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Don’t let this performance by Brady fool you, though. The 43-year-old veteran is still capable of putting up big numbers in this Tampa Bay offense, Green Bay’s defense can be susceptible with a bit of a bend-don’t-break mentality to it, and the frigid temperatures of Lambeau Field won’t be anything Brady isn’t used to having played in New England for so long.
View more of Brady’s player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.
One of the touchdowns Brady threw went to Mike Evans. Evans was +230 to score a touchdown, so that player prop came in. Evans only had 1 catch on 3 targets and it was the 3-yard TD catch he hauled in.
View more of Evans’ player prop statistics by checking out his player props page on SharpSide.