NFL Betting Picks: Top Plays for Week 9

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints (photo credit: Imagn/USA TODAY Sports)

Welcome to SharpSide’s NFL betting picks article for Week 9. In this article, we’ll break down a few of the week’s matchups, taking a look at the betting odds and point spreads before laying out some predictions and picks.

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks

We’ll look to target one game from the early slate, one game from the afternoon slate, and then Sunday Night Football. This week, we’ll be looking at picks for the Seahawks vs. Bills, Dolphins vs. Cardinals, and Saints vs. Bucs. Let’s get to it!

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills

The first game we’ll look at is the Seattle Seahawks against the Buffalo Bills. Looking at the Seahawks vs. Bills odds, we can see that Seattle is a 3-point road favorite on the point spread at the time of writing.

Let me first say that I may be picking this game because I’m a big Seattle Seahawks fan, but, looking past my fandom, I think that this is just a great spot for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

The Buffalo Bills started off as a fantastic team, winning the team’s first four games, but when we look at those from a game-by-game perspective over the full season, things really don’t add up to be that impressive. The Bills beat the horrible New York Jets twice and barely beat the Miami Dolphins (who are actually underrated), the Los Angeles Rams, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the New England Patriots. None of these wins are really impressive victories. In fact, the Bills are currently the only six-win team in the league to have scored fewer points than their opponents (198 to 199). The Bills are a bit of an overrated team with no real impressive victories and are coming off of a four-game stretch of struggling.

While the Bills haven’t had any truly impressive wins, the Seahawks really haven’t either, but Seattle’s historically lousy pass defense should have an upgrade this week with Carlos Dunlap playing his first game along the defensive line and Jamal Adams coming back into the fold in the secondary. The Seahawks currently sit at 6-1 with a +41 point differential on the season. The only team the Seahawks beat that has a winning record is the Dolphins, but they have looked great on offense all season long, specifically the passing offense with Wilson at the helm.

With the Bills offense struggling recently and the good weather in Buffalo this weekend, I’m giving a big edge to the Seahawks with what should be an improved pass defense.

SharpSide’s Pick: Seahawks -3

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Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

In this game, we have two teams that have really surprised people this season and both could be potential playoff teams. It should be a fun matchup to watch with young QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray going head to head. Looking at the Dolphins vs. Cardinals odds, we can see that Arizona is a 4.5-point home favorite on the point spread at the time of writing.

The Miami Dolphins have looked fantastic this season. When you look at their wins and losses, it’s even more impressive. Miami’s three losses have been to the Bills, Seahawks, and Patriots (in New England). The losses against the Seahawks and Bills were by one score and the one against the Patriots came in a tough matchup for the team’s first game of the season. Looking at Miami’s wins, they beat two terrible teams in the Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars by 18+ points and beat two underrated teams in the Rams and San Francisco 49ers in decisive victories.

In Miami’s losses, they have a combined -21 point differential, but in the team’s wins, they have a +79 point differential. Surprisingly, no team in the league has allowed fewer points to opposing teams than the Dolphins (130) and they are only behind the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts in points differential this season.

The Arizona Cardinals are also a surprise, but much like the Dolphins they really have had an easy schedule. On the season, Arizona’s only impressive win was against the Seahawks, which was really a game they probably should have lost. Additionally, Arizona’s losses have been to the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, both of which are not good football teams.

The Cardinals have one of the highest point differentials in the league, but that includes games against the Dallas Cowboys without Dak Prescott, the Jets, and the Washington Football Team. Overall, this Arizona offense has looked good, but the defense is probably a bit overrated.

SharpSide’s Pick: Dolphins (+4.5)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)

On Sunday Night Football, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints head to Florida to take on division rival Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Looking at the Saints vs. Buccaneers odds, we can see that Tampa Bay is a 4.5-point home favorite on the point spread at the time of writing.

The “AARP Bowl” should be a fun one with the oldest duo of QBs in NFL history facing off. This is a game between the two top teams in the NFC South and, as of Friday morning, it looks like both Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas will be available.

The Buccaneers have been fantastic this season, ranking 1st in DVOA this season and 1st in defensive DVOA this season, both per FootballOutsiders.com. This is the second matchup of these two teams this season, with the Saints and Buccaneers playing in Week 1 of the regular season. In that one, the Saints got the win.

While the Buccaneers have been good, I believe them to be a bit overrated. Outside of the decisive win against the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay really hasn’t had a big win this season.

The Saints really haven’t looked like the Saints of the past so far this season, but I think a large amount of that has to do with Thomas not playing much at all this season. With Thomas coming back this week, I think that the Saints will be a drastically improved team and I think that they end up beating Tampa Bay outright in this one.

Even with the only good option in this offense being Alvin Kamara, the Saints have still managed to be the seventh-ranked offense in the league, according to FootballOutsiders.com DVOA. Add him in and I think that they give the Buccaneers a real problem on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.

SharpSide’s Pick: Saints (+4.5) and Saints ML (+188)

Week 9 Picks Recap

Seahawks (-3)
Dolphins (+4.5)
Saints (+4.5)
Saints ML (+188)

Teaser: Seahawks (+3), Dolphins (+10.5), and Saints (+10.5)

To make free sports betting picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

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