NFL Betting Picks: Top Plays for Week 11

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

Welcome to SharpSide’s NFL betting picks article for Week 11. In this article, we’ll break down a few of the week’s matchups, taking a look at the betting odds and point spreads before laying out some predictions and picks.

Looking back at Week 10, we ended up 2-1 for a nice 1-unit profit. Overall on the season, we sit at 5-3 and up 2.78 units.

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

For Week 11, we’ll be looking at the Titans vs. Ravens, Jets vs. Chargers, and Chiefs vs. Raiders. Tennessee and Baltimore play in the early portion of Sunday, New York and Los Angeles are in the afternoon, and then Kansas City and Las Vegas will be featured on Sunday Night Football.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Looking through the early games, there really isn’t a ton that I like. Most of the games look to have pretty fair point spreads, but this game between the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens probably has the one that offers the most value.

Both of these teams are sitting at 6-3 and have been struggling a bit recently. While both teams have had hard schedules in recent weeks, I think that the Titans are the better team and still match up pretty decently against the Ravens.

Looking at similar opponents, the Ravens have the advantage. Both teams have lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Ravens have beaten the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts in recent weeks. While I think that the Ravens have a better shot of winning this game, I think the spread should actually be under 3.

From the defensive side, the Ravens have the advantage. But on the offensive end, the Ravens have struggled greatly and they tend to struggle against good coaches nearly every week (see Bill Belichick last week). I think Mike Vrabel should be able to hold Lamar Jackson in check here and I’m taking both the points and the moneyline.

SharpSide’s Pick: Titans (+5.5) and Titans ML (+200)

To make free sports betting picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)

The afternoon games had a lot of bets that I was a huge fan of, but this one is probably my favorite. If there’s one thing we know about the Los Angeles Chargers it’s that they are cursed and will be doomed to lose nearly every single game by 3 points. This week, I don’t think that happens, but I do think that this game stays close and the New York Jets have a decent chance to win.

While the Jets have been a train wreck pretty much this entire season, they did keep games close against the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Add in that the Jets receiving core has been destroyed by injuries all season long and is finally healthy, and they have an underrated but still below-average offense.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are a 9.5-point favorite as a 2-7 team and that really doesn’t make sense to me. The Chargers offense looks pretty good with Justin Herbert behind center, but the Chargers have given up 29 or more points to opposing teams six weeks in a row and their only win since Week 1 has been against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This Chargers team is not a good team and my guess is we see a game similar game to what we saw against the Patriots two weeks ago. The Jets are going to get out to a 14-point lead early and then you can take the Chargers moneyline at +150 halfway through the second quarter when they inevitably win in the last few seconds of the game.

SharpSide’s Pick: Jets (+9.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Las Vegas Raiders

Earlier on in the week, we got the news that the Las Vegas Raiders are going to have a bunch of defensive players on the COVID-19 list during the week because they were in close contact with Clelin Ferrell. While it looks at the moment like all of them will be able to play this weekend, most of them have not been able to practice at all this week.

On a normal week, this would be a tough thing to come back from, but this week it’s even worse because the Raiders play Patrick Mahomes in a dome.

I don’t like how the spread is more than a touchdown and I don’t like the fact that the Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this season, but I don’t see many ways that the Chiefs don’t end up blowing out the Raiders here. The Chiefs are currently sitting at 8-1 and have put up 33, 35, and 43 points in the last three weeks. Mahomes is going to have an absolute field day against a defense that isn’t fully prepared for this game.

SharpSide’s Pick: Chiefs (-8) and over 57

To make free sports betting picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

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