NFL AFC East Betting Preview: Division Odds, Win Totals, and More for 2020

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

Last updated: July 22, 2020

The NFL’s AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots since 2001. Since that year, the Patriots have won 17 division titles, and entering the 2020 season the team has won 11 consecutive division titles. That streak could have been longer had Tom Brady not tore his ACL in 2008. But, the betting outlook for the upcoming season looks a bit different than what we’re used to seeing.

Coming into this season, the Patriots aren’t the huge favorites to win the AFC East, and that’s mostly because Brady is no longer on the team.

Brady opted to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the offseason, a few other key players from the New England defense went elsewhere, and the Buffalo Bills progressed last season. In this AFC East betting preview, we’ll take a look at the odds to win the division and how each team shapes up for a new year of pro football.

*All odds in this article per FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 22, 2020, and subject to change.

Odds to win the AFC East

TeamOdds as of July 22
New England Patriots+100
Buffalo Bills+150
New York Jets+750
Miami Dolphins+850

New England Patriots (+100)

The speculation of whether Brady will return as the Patriots quarterback for another season is over, as the six-time Super Bowl champion did not re-sign with New England. Instead, he signed with the Buccaneers. At the time, that meant second-year player Jarrett Stidham or veteran backup Brian Hoyer would be New England’s starting QB next season. The Patriots went out and grabbed Cam Newton, though, and all signs are pointing to the former MVP being the man under center for New England.

For more on what we might expect from Newton this season, check out the props analysis done by Holden Kusher.

The loss of valuable players didn’t stop with Brady, as two of the team’s best linebackers, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, went elsewhere, Danny Shelton left, and the team traded Duron Harmon. Collins, Shelton, and Harmon all ended up on the Detroit Lions, whereas Van Noy signed with the Miami Dolphins.

For the first time in as long as we can remember, the Patriots are plus money to win the AFC East and virtually tied with the same odds as the Bills to grab the division crown.

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Buffalo Bills (+150)

The Buffalo Bills are coming off the team’s second playoff appearance in three years and this really seems to be the season everyone is betting on them to make a big leap that includes winning the AFC East.

Josh Allen has yet another season under his belt and the Bills added stud wideout Stefon Diggs to the offense. Devin Singletary looked very good at running back last season and we now know exactly what to expect from the always tough Buffalo defense.

If Allen can continue his progression and take care of the football, and if the Bills defense can remain as one of the best in the league, we could see quite the stampede in the AFC and it starts with the AFC East.

New York Jets (+750)

Much like the fate of the Patriots season is in the hands of Bill Belichick, the New York Jets will be looking squarely at Adam Gase to figure things out. Sam Darnold looks the part at quarterback, albeit young and with plenty of growth to do, they’ve got Le’Veon Bell in the backfield, and the team made several picks in the 2020 NFL Draft that aim to plug the holes in the roster.

The Jets took tackle Mekhi Becton with a big swing of a pick and they added veteran tackle George Fant in free agency. Wide receiver Denzel Mims was the team’s second pick in the draft and should be a starter out of the gate with the departure of Robby Anderson. The team signed Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder is back. It’s not the greatest group of receivers, but a team could do worse and this, coupled with Bell and the offensive line additions, are why there are plenty of eyes on the supposed-to-be-offensive-guru Gase.

Are the Jets expected to win the AFC East? No, but there’s no reason they shouldn’t improve upon last season’s 7-9 record.

Miami Dolphins (+850)

Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team, right? Well, not yet, but they appear to be very much in the right direction. The Dolphins are a young squad who rounded into form last season after an abysmal start. Coach Brian Flores truly does appear to be creating a solid core and great chemistry in South Florida and now we’ll see if the No. 5 overall pick, Tua Tagovailoa, is the man to take Miami to the next level.

Elsewhere in the draft, Miami picked up some pieces that will fill some holes. The team had three first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, and it added tackle Austin Jackson and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene after picking Tagovailoa. The team took another tackle, Robert Hunt, in the second round, plus added a bunch of defensive players throughout.

The draft wasn’t the only place the Dolphins were busy in the offseason. Defensive back Byron Jones was signed to a big deal, defensive end Shaq Lawson was secured on a three-year deal, and then the aforementioned Van Noy joined the team alongside another Patriots player in Ted Karras.

AFC East win totals

The Patriots have the highest season win total in the AFC East, but the Bills are right there behind them. New England is at over/under 9 wins and Buffalo is at over/under 8.5 wins. Normally, we’re used to seeing the Patriots’ win total of around 11 or 12 games entering the season, so this is a bit of unchartered territory.

TeamWinsOdds as of July 22
New England PatriotsOver 9.5+115
Under 9.5-135
Buffalo BillsOver 8.5-120
Under 8.5+100
New York JetsOver 6.5-120
Under 6.5+100
Miami DolphinsOver 6-135
Under 6+115

AFC East odds to make NFL playoffs

TeamMake Playoffs?Odds as of July 22
New England PatriotsYes-205
No+166
Buffalo BillsYes-148
No+122
New York JetsYes+360
No-500
Miami DolphinsYes+410
No-600

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