NBA Player Props: Picks for Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell | September 1, 2020
Welcome back to SharpSide and a new NBA player prop picks article. It’s Tuesday, September 1, and there are two games taking place today in the NBA Playoffs. The final game of the day is the one everyone is looking forward to, as the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz battle in a Game 7 to see who advances to the second round.
Jamal Murray has been the talk of the basketball world with his recent performances in this series, and Donovan Mitchell has been right there with him. Both players have been putting on incredible shows. This is the game and these are two of the players we’re going to focus on in the NBA player props market.
Our last time out, five picks on Tuesday went 2-3 for a loss of 1.28 units. We almost went 3-2, but Mike Conley fell short of hitting the over on his points total by a single point. The other two losses were mostly due to a blowout by the LA Clippers over the Dallas Mavericks. Overall, we’re sitting at 19-10 and up 6.59 units during this NBA Playoffs run.
Those picks are in the past, though, and we must move on. Let’s get to our NBA player props and picks for this slate.
The NBA player prop lines mentioned in this article are taken from the free-to-use SharpSide sports betting app.
Donovan Mitchell – Over 32.5 points (+129)
High point totals are scary to bet the over, but that’s what we’re doing with this Donovan Mitchell player prop. Mitchell is Utah’s top scorer and he’s been blowing up in this series, including point totals of 57 (Game 1), 51 (Game 4), and 44 (Game 6).
Mitchell can do it all. He can shoot from the outside, he has a good mid-range game, and he can drive to the basket strong. He’s been almost unguardable in this series and only once scored less than 30 points in a game, and that was when he scored 20 points in the Game 3 blowout that resulted in a 37-point win for Utah.
Over the course of the series, Mitchell is averaging 38.6 points per game. Four times he’s played at least 38 minutes and we expect his scoring volume and usage to continue at a high rate. With the way Jamal Murray has been playing for Denver, the Jazz need Mitchell to have a big game should they want to advance. Does he need to go for 50? Probably not, but it feels like he tops this over/under point total and goes for 35-40. We’re also getting a good price at +129, which we love.
Jordan Clarkson – Over 16.5 points (-106)
Alongside Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson has been performing well for the Jazz to provide some additional scoring. For this pick, we’re taking the over on a Clarkson player prop of 16.5 points.
In four of the six games against the Nuggets this series, Clarkson has topped 16.5 points. Had Game 3 been closer, he might’ve topped it there, too. Clarkson is less of a threat to drive to the basket than Mitchell is, but he’s just as much of a deep threat. He’s shooting better than 36% from three-point land and is getting up an average of more than 7 shots from behind the arc each game.
With as much at stake as this Game 7 has, we expect Utah’s scorers to play healthy minutes, even in a bit of a blowout. If Clarkson can get 26-30 minutes of action, we’re pretty confident he’ll come in over 16.5 points.
Jamal Murray – Over 39.5 points (+131)
Are we crazy? Maybe, but we’re just not going to bet against Jamal Murray with the way he’s been playing. Murray is lighting the world on fire when he steps on the court, posting 142 points in the last three games of this series. In each of those games, he’s played more than 40 minutes and it’s fair to expect 40 minutes to be the baseline of what he plays in this Game 7 when everything is on the line.
To hit the over here, Murray has to go for at least 40 points. That’s a lot of points, but we’re happy to be getting +131 on the price. If Murray’s minutes are there, and they very well should be, his shots should be there, too. He should be able to get up 25-30 field goals, with double-digit three-point attempts.
Like Mitchell for the Jazz, no one seems to have an answer for Murray. Even when he’s defended well, Murray is maneuvering to get off quality looks and knocking them down. We’re seeing something truly special with his performances recently and we’re not about to bet against Murray.
All player prop lines mentioned in this article are taken from the SharpSide sports betting app. Download the app today to make player prop picks for your chance to win real prizes for free.