NBA Player Props: Picks for Luka Doncic, Paul George, and More | August 25, 2020
Welcome back to SharpSide and a new NBA player prop picks article. This time, we’re tackling the slate of games from Tuesday, August 25, which included the Utah Jazz versus the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks versus LA Clippers.
Our picks had a losing day on Monday, going 1-2 and dropping 1.08 units. LeBron James almost gave us a winning day with his 10 assists, but because his game resulted in a blowout for the Los Angeles Lakers over the Portland Trail Blazers, James played fewer than 29 minutes. Losses will happen and it’s time to move on. The good news is that our NBA player props have a record of 17-7 for 7.87 units to the positive in this NBA Playoffs.
The NBA player prop lines mentioned in this article are taken from the free-to-use SharpSide sports betting app.
Donovan Mitchell – Over 27.5 points (-118)
Whatever happens in this game, it’s safe to say that Donovan Mitchell is going to get his. He’s had two performances with more than 50 points in this series and has averaged 39.5 points through the first four games. He’s been playing well, producing at an incredible rate, and no one on the Denver Nuggets seems to have the ability to stop Mitchell.
Mitchell should flirt with 30 points pretty easily once again, so we like the floor on this Mitchell player prop. We also know the upside is there, and those two things line up with our foundational approach to player props. We like to look for a betting line that aligns with where we think the player’s floor is and has high-upside potential. That’s what we’re getting here. We do have to pay slightly up at -118, but the price is not egregious and this line could be set at 28.5 or 29.5 pretty easily with how well Mitchell has been performing lately.
Speaking of Mitchell’s recent performances, one area he’s done very well in is his three-point shooting. Mitchell is averaging 4.5 three-pointers per game this series. If we round down, we can estimate we’ll be getting 12 points off three-pointers from Mitchell. Combine that with his ability to score as a volume shooter and getting to the basket, plus any free throws he’s able to hit, and we’re in love with the over on 27.5 points for this Mitchell player prop.
Mike Conley – Over 17.5 points (-122)
Since returning to action, Mike Conley has played two games against the Nuggets, posting 27 and 26 points. Like Mitchell, Conley has been shooting the ball well from behind the arc, and that’s where we think we have good upside in regards to this Conley player prop on over/under 17.5 points.
Looking at the Jazz vs. Nuggets betting odds, we see the Jazz at a 2.5-point favorite on the point spread. That leads us to anticipate a close game. If that lines up, Conley should get at least 30 minutes on the court. If the time on the court is there, Conley will have opportunities to knock down plenty of threes. He shoots a lot from the outside and does well making them.
This is another player prop we feel has a solid floor but good upside. Conley should be in the range of 16-18 points fairly easily and he has the chance to go for 25 or more. Give us the over on the Conley player prop of 17.5 points.
Nikola Jokic – Over 24.5 points (-114)
It may not look like Nikola Jokic is doing much on the court this series, and the Nuggets being down 3-1 to the Jazz also isn’t indicative of Jokic producing, but he’s averaging 25.25 points per game this series. That average is brought down by a 15-point performance in the blowout loss the Nuggets suffered in Game 3. Other than that, Jokic has scored at least 28 points each game in the series.
When Denver played the Utah Jazz in the seeding games, Jokic put up 30 points. In the two regular-season contests, he scored 30 and 28. Jokic tends to do well against the Jazz and we feel good about him getting his in this one, especially knowing that the Nuggets must win to stay alive. If Jokic can get off 20-25 shots, including a handful of threes, we like his chances to come in over on this Jokic player prop of 24.5 points.
Luka Doncic – Over 31.5 points (-110)
Let’s be real, no one really wants to bet against Luka Doncic, do they? Certainly not right now with the way he’s playing. On Tuesday night against the Clippers, the Doncic player prop for points is at 31.5. This is as high as it’s been recently, but we’re still taking the over on it.
Kristaps Porzingis is out for Game 5. It’s his second game in a row sitting out, which means more production from Doncic will be needed. Per the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, Doncic’s usage goes up more than 38% in almost 900 minutes during the regular season with Porzingis off the court. In that time, Doncic is averaging almost 33 points per game. It’s the NBA Playoffs and the lights are on. Doncic has been shining and we have a level of expectation that he’ll continue to do so.
Is this total on the higher side? Yes, but the total is also right around where Doncic’s floor should be right now, which is about 30 points. Given the upside Doncic presents and no Porzingis, we’re taking the over on the Doncic player prop.
Paul George – Over 6.5 rebounds (-152)
Paul George has not been good in this series, make no mistake about it. After a 27-point performance in Game 1, he only scored 34 points total in the next three games combined. He’s been almost nonexistent on the offensive end for the Clippers, but that doesn’t mean George isn’t producing elsewhere.
George is a very good defender, but he’s also a very good rebounder. In the last three games this series, George has averaged 9 rebounds per game. No Porzingis on the court for the Dallas Mavericks means one less tall body for George to have to compete for rebounds with. We expect plenty of shooting to come from Dallas in this game and shooting leads to rebound opportunities, specifically for George.
He might not light up the scoreboard by putting the ball in the bucket, but we expect George to continue to do well on the glass. We’re taking the over on 6.5 rebounds for our George player prop.
All player prop lines mentioned in this article are taken from the SharpSide sports betting app. Download the app today to make player prop picks for your chance to win real prizes for free.