Monday Night Football Preview & Player Props: Patriots at Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

After a situation popped up early Saturday morning that saw Cam Newton test positive for COVID-19, the NFL Week 4 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and New Englands Patriots was moved to Monday night. Although we won’t be getting the highly anticipated matchup between Newton and Patrick Mahomes, we’ll still see the game played in Week 4.

The Chiefs and Patriots will kick off almost two hours before the regularly scheduled Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers does. Looking at the Chiefs vs. Patriots point spread, we can see that the Chiefs are 10.5-point home favorites. In this article, we’ll break down the Chiefs vs. Patriots matchup from an NFL betting perspective and provide a few free picks for the game.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

Monday, October 5, 2020, at 7:05 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, MO

The Chiefs enter this game at 3-0 and in first place in the AFC West. No matter Monday’s result, Kansas City will remain in first place in the division. The Patriots, on the other hand, find themselves looking up in the standings at the first-place Buffalo Bills, who are 4-0 after beating the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. New England sits at 2-1 but has a tall mountain to climb to move to 3-1. Playing against Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is no easy task and doing it on the road makes it even harder. Doing it without your starting quarterback? Ouch.

Does New England Have Enough Offense?

It’s no secret how good the Kansas City offense is. They can hang 40 or 50 points on any given day and can score within a few plays of getting the ball. No lead is safe against Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the Chiefs, which means beating them usually comes down to outscoring them in a shootout.

It appears as though Brian Hoyer is going to get the start at QB for New England, although there is a chance they go with Jarrett Stidham. Whicher QB that Bill Belichick decides to go with, it won’t be Newton under center and brings up a big question as to whether or not the Patriots will have enough offensively to score with the Chiefs. You also have to factor in that either Hoyer or Stidham will be coming in with two days’ notice of being the starter, which makes life even more difficult.

Arrowhead Stadium won’t be packed full like it normally is, but there will be some fans in attendance to generate some noise. Even with Newton at QB, it was questioned by many if New England could put up enough points in this one.

Andy Reid Versus Bill Belichick

It can be a common thought that Belichick is a vastly superior coach than Andy Reid, but when these two have gone against each other with Reid coaching the Chiefs, a different story plays out.

In 2014, with Alex Smith at quarterback, the Chiefs decimated the Patriots by a score of 41-14. In 2015, the two teams met in the playoffs and it resulted in a 27-20 win for New England. In 2017, New England and Kansas City opened the season with a game at Gilette Stadium that saw the Chiefs crush the Patriots again, this time 42-27 with 537 total yards of offense that included 352 yards passing. In 2018, the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home, but Kansas City was able to put up 40 points and 352 passing yards.

We all know what happened that 2018 season in the AFC Championship game, when if it wasn’t for Dee Ford lining up offsides, Tom Brady‘s interception stands and the Chiefs win that game, again having scored more than 30 against New England. Last season, New England held Kansas City to 23 points, but the Chiefs won the game and Mahomes banged his hand during the game that caused some issues.

What we’re trying to say is that Reid does pretty well against Belichick and the Patriots. Add in what Reid and the Chiefs were able to do against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and it looks like Reid is quite the offensive coach.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Point Spread Pick: Chiefs (-10.5)

Laying 10.5 points against Belichick, no matter who his quarterback is, is a tough pill to swallow but this is the side we’re taking. New England will be going with an offense that is less prepared than normal due to the Newton news. Although Kansas City’s defense isn’t great, it’s good enough and should be able to put more emphasis on stopping what New England does best, which is running the ball. With Hoyer or Stidham at quarterback, there’s less fear of the pass or the quarterback scrambling, as Newton might, which allows Kansas City to key in on New England’s rushing attack more.

Kansas City can get up in this one and make New England play from behind, which doesn’t bode well for the Patriots and this offense as it is currently constructed. There’s been some talk that New England will try to slow the game down and play a ground-and-pound style to keep Kansas City’s offense off the field as much as possible, but how much does that really matter when Mahomes can take the Chiefs down the field and into the end zone in the blink of an eye?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Player Prop: Over 27.5 receiving yards

New England’s better defenders are going to be tied up covering Hill, Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and so on, leaving a less capable defender to cover Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. The Patriots are weak at the linebacker position, which is usually where RBs are covered from. These two things lead us to believe Edwards-Helaire could be in for a very big day against New England.

In 2017, Kareem Hunt had 5 catches on 5 targets for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns against New England. In 2018, Hunt had 5 receptions on 6 targets for 105 yards and 1 touchdown against the Patriots. In the AFC Championship in 2018, Damien Williams went for 5 receptions for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets against New England. Reid has shown us that he’s able to attack Belichick’s defense with backs out of the backfield and Edwards-Helaire is no slouch in that regard.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Player Prop: Over 3.5 receptions

In addition to taking the over on 27.5 receiving yards for Edwards-Helaire, we’ll be taking the over on 3.5 receptions for the rookie running back out of LSU. After having no receptions on 2 targets in Week 1, Edwards-Helaire has seen a nice bump in targets the last two weeks, getting 8 in Week 2 and 6 in Week 3. This is the range of targets we see Edwards-Helaire getting against New England, from 6-8. Edwards-Helaire is good at catching the ball and we already know how great Mahomes is at finding people.

Against a weak group of linebackers for New England as Belichick puts greater emphasis on stopping Hill and Kelce, we expect Edwards-Helaire to have plenty of opportunities on Monday night.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

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