Monday Night Football Preview & Player Props: Falcons at Packers

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

Monday Night Football in Week 4 was supposed to close out the week with the Atlanta Falcons traveling north to take on the Green Bay Packers. Due to a COVID-19 issue that started with Cam Newton, the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will also take place on Monday night, giving us a doubleheader.

For this betting preview, we’ll be looking at the Falcons and Packers game. Looking at the Falcons vs. Packers betting odds, we can see the home team, Green Bay, is a fairly big favorite. In this article, we’ll break down the Falcons vs. Packers matchup from an NFL betting perspective and provide a few free picks for the game.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6)

Monday, October 5, 2020, at 8:50 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, WI

The first quarter of the NFL season wraps up with an unexpected doubleheader, as the Chiefs vs, Patriots game was moved to Monday after Newton tested positive for COVID-19. The nightcap, as it were, will see the struggling Falcons travel to Wisconsin to take on the 3-0 Packers.

On paper, this looks like a mismatch of two teams that couldn’t be heading in more opposite directions. The Packers are undefeated, look solid, and are leading the NFC North division. The Falcons have suffered some brutal losses after having big leads in recent weeks and are 0-3 on the season, sitting at the bottom of the NFC South. Yet, big money is coming in on the Falcons, as this moved off of the key number of (-7) and down to Packers (-6) on the point spread. Let’s look into why that was the case.

Falcons Living Another Nightmare

It has truly been a historic season for the Atlanta Falcons, or perhaps we should say, an infamously historic season for them. In back-to-back weeks, the Falcons had a 99% win probability in the fourth quarter, yet Atlanta somehow managed to lose both games. Against the Dallas Cowboys, the Falcons lost a 15-point lead with five minutes left. Before that game, NFL teams that had scored 39 or more points and had zero turnovers were 440-0. That’s right, 440 wins and no losses. To make matters worse, last week, the Falcons blew a similar lead to the Chicago Bears, who had put in their backup quarterback, Nick Foles, to try to get a spark.

Amazingly, Dan Quinn still has his job as the head coach. He has a tough task on his hands this week, preparing for a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers-led passing attack in Green Bay. However, the Packers look like they will once again be without their biggest offensive weapon.

Davante Adams Doubtful To Play

Following a down season for their insanely high standards, it looked like Rodgers and Davante Adams were back to their high-flying ways in Week 1. Against their divisional rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns, with a pair going to Adams, who himself had 14 catches for 156 yards. However, Adams has yet to play since due to a lingering hamstring injury and the star wideout tweeted Monday morning that he was being held out for another week.

Well, the Packers haven’t missed much of a beat, despite the fact that they have been rolling with Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top wideouts. Last week, they beat up on what was thought to be a good New Orleans Saints defense, putting up 37 points in a primetime showdown. Now, Lazard is on temporary IR, leaving the Packers with even fewer weapons. They will need to score plenty of points because the Falcons’ offense has still been humming all season long, despite the team’s problems.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Point Spread Pick: Falcons (+6)

This pick simply comes down to the packed injury report for this Green Bay squad. Without their top two wideouts, the Packers will have to rely on Aaron Jones out of the backfield more than ever. The Falcons’ defense is poor, but their “strength” is on the front line slowing down the run. Atlanta is second to last in yards allowed, due in large part to allowing a whopping 350 yards passing per game. As good as Rodgers still is, it’s hard to imagine he will be able to continue to move the ball down the field given the weapons he is missing.

Add on the fact that it looks like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are going to play, so it looks like the Falcons should be covering here, even though this is an outside road game at night. That’s a scenario that Atlanta usually struggles with.

Aaron Jones Player Prop: Over 4.5 catches

This play is fully related to the Green Bay injury problems we’ve been laying out so far. Rodgers still has to throw the ball to somebody, and outside of Valdes-Scantling, Jones is by far the player Rodgers has the most chemistry with, so he should be getting plenty of touches in the run and pass games.

Not only that, but Jones is athletic enough to motion out and run routes just like a WR, so expect the Packers to run plenty of formations with both Jones and Jamaal Williams on the field. Bank on the heavy workload here and take the over for 4.5 receptions for Jones.

Russell Gage Player Prop: Under 4.5 catches

We are going under on Russell Gage for the exact opposite reasons of the Aaron Jones over. Despite their 0-3 record, the Falcons offense is fully healthy coming into this week. Julio Jones was knocked out of the game early in Week 2 and missed last week’s game with that injury. Despite no Julio Jones, Gage logged just 2 receptions last week. Gage is likely to be more comfortable back in the slot, but Matt Ryan will have his eyes locked in on his favorite target once again. Not only that, but Ridley has stepped up in a big way so far this season, and there are only so many targets that can go around.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

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