Monday Night Football Preview & Player Props: Chiefs at Bills

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

One of two Monday Night Football games in Week 6 of the NFL features the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Buffalo Bills. The other sees the Arizona Cardinals take on the Dallas Cowboys. In this one, both teams are coming off a loss, with the Chiefs losing to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Bills losing to the Tennessee Titans. Looking at the Chiefs vs. Bills betting odds, we can see that the Chiefs are road favorites. In this article, we’ll break down the Chiefs vs. Bills matchup from an NFL betting perspective and provide a few free picks for the game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Buffalo Bills

Monday, October 19, 2020, at 5:05 p.m. ET
Bills Stadium
Buffalo, NY

A potential AFC playoff preview will be played out on Monday night, as two of the top teams in the conference face-off. Both Kansas City and Buffalo are coming off their first losses of the season. The Chiefs were surprisingly subdued in losing to the Raiders, while the Bills are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Titans. Not only that, but the Bills are also playing on short rest, having played Tuesday night. Let’s break down this enticing matchup.

What’s Wrong with the Bills Defense?

The Buffalo Bills ground their way to the playoffs last season, due in large part to their stout defense masking the occasional mistakes from their young QB, Josh Allen. Well, the script has completely flipped this year, as Allen is the reason the Bills are 4-1, with the defense continuing to struggle early on.

Last week, the Bills defense was thrashed by Ryan Tannehill and company, and now, they have to face Patrick Mahomes, who is coming in extra motivated after their disappointing loss last week. The Bills rank in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game, so look for Mahomes to air the ball out early and often.

Chiefs Offense Looking to Bounce Back

It is quite telling that a game where the Chiefs scored 32 points can be considered a struggle for Mahomes and company, but if you take a deeper dive into the game, you will see why. After putting up 24 points in the first half, the Chiefs offense was absolutely stuffed in the second half. The offense went scoreless in the third quarter and scored its only second-half touchdown late in the game when the game was largely decided.

Le’Veon Bell has just signed with Kansas City, but he won’t be available on Monday. It does go to show that the Chiefs have identified their backfield as a potential weak point. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, drafted in the first round in the NFL Draft and in virtually every fantasy draft, has been a disappointment so far. His passing game involvement isn’t what was expected, and he has yet to convert any goal-to-go carries. Look for Edwards-Helaire to have a big game in hopes of showing Andy Reid that he should remain the top running back in this offense.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

Point Spread Pick: Kansas City (-4.5)

This line opened with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites on the spread but quickly doubled to -5 after the Bills surprise blowout loss on Tuesday. It has since dropped to -4.5, a number that looks too good to pass up for the defending Super Bowl champions.

As pointed out earlier, this isn’t last season’s Buffalo defense, so Mahomes should have no problem bouncing back in a big way. On the opposite side, the Chiefs defense has looked solid so far, though they too had a bad game last week, allowing 40 to a Raiders offense that has been up and down this season. Look for the Chiefs to outscore the Bills enough to get the cover.

Josh Allen Player Prop: Over 1.5 passing TDs

Allen finally came back down to Earth last week after lighting the NFL on fire for the first month of the season. But here’s the thing. Even in a bad game, Allen completed 63.4% of his passes, with 263 yards and 2 touchdowns (along with 2 interceptions, to be fair). The over/under in this game is 57 points, so there’s little doubt we will have a shootout on our hands. If that is the case, this number is simply too low, and that is baked into the -181 juice on this player prop. However, it’s simply too good a spot to pass up on, as Allen has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in every game so far this season.

Travis Kelce Player Prop: Over 6.5 receptions

Travis Kelce has picked up right where he left off last season, continuing to be an absolute target monster in this high-octane offense. Even in a game when the offense “struggled” last week, Kelce hauled in 8 of his 12 targets. However, the biggest factor in this prop is the fact that Tre’Davious White will likely be shadowing Tyreek Hill on the outside, assuming White plays. If that is the case, then that should mean even more looks for Kelce in the middle. Take the positive juice on the over for this Kelce player prop.

To make free player prop picks, check out the SharpSide sports betting app, available now for iOS and Android.

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