Welcome to SharpSide’s weekly free NFL betting picks article, where we take the time to review the betting odds, point spreads, and over/under totals for every game on the NFL schedule for the week. It’s time for Week 10 of the regular season and the games we’ll focus on for this article take place on Sunday, November 10, and Monday, November 11, 2019.

Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings (photo credit: USA TODAY Sports)

If you’re new, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Grant Neiffer. Welcome! I’ll look at the odds, point spreads, over/under totals, and maybe even some prop bets. One thing you should know is that if you were to bet every single game and over/under during every week of the season, then you are almost guaranteed to end up in the red in the long run. Football betting lines are good and sportsbooks make money for a reason.

Although my NFL betting picks are generally made for entertainment purposes, and sports betting should first and foremost be fun, keep in mind when placing bets that you should never wager more than you can afford. No matter how good the odds are, nothing is a sure thing. That is, unless you actually have a friend in the mafia who is breaking some legs when your bets lose, and if that’s the case we need to report you to the authorities. That’s a joke, people!

If you’re looking to get in on the football betting action, check out the free VegasInsider.com Pro Football Handicapping Challenge that is available by using the SharpSide app. The free sports betting contest is giving away $10,000 in prizes, including a $5,000 grand prize.

Before we get into tackling the NFL betting picks for Week 10, let’s take a look a last week’s results to see how we did in Week 9.

Week 9 Recap

Against the Spread: 4-8
Totals: 7-4-1
Overall: 11-12-1
Net Units: -4.54 units

Even though in Week 9 we were just one game under .500, it went very poorly for us betting on the point spread. After losing the first seven games in the morning, we managed to salvage things a bit, but I knew this regression was coming at some point. We still have a 56.9% win rate on the point spread and are close to .500 on the totals.

As a side note, since we dropped the totals down to bets of 0.1 units instead of 1 unit, we have had a 55% win rate, including a 22-14-2 record over the last three weeks. No idea if this is going to continue, but we are bumping them back up to 1 unit this week. Knowing me, I can almost guarantee that it’s going to end poorly for me doing this, but we will see.

Season Totals

Against the Spread: 70-53-1 (+11.7 units)
Totals: 57-60-5 (-10.71 units)
Combined Overall: 127-113-6
Net Units: +0.99 units

Also remember, it’s near impossible to beat the juice betting every single spread and total over the course of the season, although I did achieve that feat last season. This article should be taken as an overall view of the week, with a breakdown of which bets I prefer on each game if I were forced to decide and my thought process. If you want to know my absolute best NFL bets of the week, then check out my video latest Ship It video on the SharpSide YouTube channel.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, OH

Spread Open: Ravens (-10)
Current Spread: Ravens (-10)

Over/under Total Open: 46
Current Over/under Total: 44.5

Public Money on Spread: 64% on Ravens
Public Money on Over/under Total: 58% on Under

While I don’t generally like taking 10-point road favorites, I think that this might be a decent spot to do so. While the Cincinnati Bengals are bad, this might be one of the worst possible matchups on the board for them.

The Baltimore Ravens are a mid-tier defense this year, but their offense matches up perfectly against the Bengals defense. The Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the league against the run and historically bad against running quarterbacks, so I’m expecting the Ravens to put up a ton of points even when they’re trying to run out the clock.

On the other side, the Bengals will be starting a rookie QB in Ryan Finley and he will be forced to try and put up some points. I don’t see that happening and I think that the Ravens crush the Bengals.

Free Picks: Ravens (-10) and Under 44.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, LA

Spread Open: Saints (-13)
Current Spread: Saints (-13)

Over/under Total Open: 50
Current Over/under Total: 51

Public Money on Spread: 59% on Saints
Public Money on Over/under Total: 58% on Over

This is another game that I don’t see a whole lot of value in because of the high total, but just based off what the New Orleans Saints were like last year, and with how bad the Atlanta Falcons defense is, I’m expecting the Saints to roll the Falcons in this one.

A 13-point spread is very high, but the Saints were regularly blowing teams out at the beginning of last season, and with Drew Brees back I expect them to be doing it again. The Saints have a fantastic line and their defense is a little underrated. While Matt Ryan coming back is a big upgrade for this Falcons offense, I don’t see them keeping it close unless that have a late backdoor cover in garbage time.

Free Picks: Saints (-13) and Over 51

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland, OH

Spread Open: Browns (-2.5)
Current Spread: Browns (-3)

Over/under Total Open: 42.5
Current Over/under Total: 40

Public Money on Spread: 73% on Bills
Public Money on Over/under Total: 63% on Under

At first glance, this game seems like the Buffalo Bills would be the obvious pick, but upon further review I don’t think that it is.

There is some reverse line movement going on here, and when you look at the Browns schedule, it’s obvious why they’re favored. They’ve only had three games at home so far this season and they’ve had one of the toughest schedules in the league. The Browns may be dumpster fire, but they are a team with a ton of talent and they just haven’t played much at home and have faced possibly five of the best teams in the league so far this season.

The Bills, on the other hand, have only beaten bad teams so far this season. Overall, I think the Bills get rolled here.

Free Picks: Browns (-3) and Over 40

New York Giants at New York Jets

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ

Spread Open: Jets (-1.5)
Current Spread: Giants (-2.5)

Over/under Total Open: 41.5
Current Over/under Total: 44.5

Public Money on Spread: 76% on Giants
Public Money on Over/under Total: 67% on Over

While most of the numbers seem to suggest that the New York Jets are the better play, I’m going with the New York Giants. Although this game is technically a road game for the Giants, it’s really being played in their home stadium, so there is no need to travel for the Giants and the only disadvantage they’ll have is that more Jets fans will likely be in the stands.

Overall, I think that the Giants are a much better team than the Jets, who just got rolled by the Miami Dolphins last week. I think we see the same thing this week.

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Free Picks: Giants (-2.5) and Over 44.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, TN

Spread Open: Chiefs (-3)
Current Spread: Chiefs (-6)

Over/under Total Open: 48
Current Over/under Total: 48.5

Public Money on Spread: 84% on Chiefs
Public Money on Over/under Total: 52% on Over

There has been a decent amount of line movement on this game, and with the news of Patrick Mahomes playing, the line has jumped up a decent amount. With 84% of the money coming in on the Chiefs, I actually like the Tennessee Titans in this matchup.

The Titans have been a fairly good team with Ryan Tannehill behind center and Mahomes isn’t the same quarterback if he isn’t mobile. With his mobility hindered slightly like it was in his last few games with an ankle injury, I don’t expect Mahomes to be the guy we saw all last season.

Overall, we’re getting a 6-point home dog here against an injured QB. I think that offers a decent amount of value.

Free Picks: Titans (+6) and Over 48.5

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL

Spread Open: Bucs (-5.5)
Current Spread: Bucs (-4.5)

Over/under Total Open: 54
Current Over/under Total: 52

Public Money on Spread: 64% on Cardinals
Public Money on Over/under Total: 66% on Over

To me, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a much better team that probably has just had a tough schedule and lost some close games.

The Tampa Bay passing attack has been fantastic and their run defense has been the best in the league thus far. They should be able to shut down David Johnson in the running game and do some work against the Kyler Murray, who has been known to make some mistakes.

In a high-scoring and high-pace game like this one should be, I think that this spread is far too low.

Free Picks: Bucs (-4.5) and Under 52

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 1 p.m. ET
Soldier Field
Chicago, IL

Spread Open: Bears (-3.5)
Current Spread: Bears (-2.5)

Over/under Total Open: 44
Current Over/under Total: 41.5

Public Money on Spread: 60% on Lions
Public Money on Over/under Total: 65% on Under

While the Chicago Bears have an absolute dumpster fire at quarterback right now, I still think they are the better play.

This is a divisional matchup and being played in Chicago, which gives the Bears a pretty big edge. Although the line for this game started out at 3.5, in which there wouldn’t have been much value on either side, it has moved enough that I really like the Chicago side. I think after the last few weeks of play for Mitchell Trubisky, the public is way too down on these Bears, but they are a top-tier defense that is probably due for some positive regression.

Free Picks: Bears (-2.5) and Over 41.5

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, IN

Spread Open: Colts (-15.5)
Current Spread: Colts (-10.5)

Over/under Total Open: 44
Current Over/under Total: 44

Public Money on Spread: 54% on Dolphins
Public Money on Over/under Total: 65% on Over

Well, last week was just another week of me getting the Miami Dolphins wrong, so this week I’m sure it will be the same. To me, they are playing a little better, and I’m not sure that Jacoby Brissett is going to play this week, which would be a slight downgrade for the Indianapolis Colts.

While the line for this game started as some value for the Dolphins, it has moved all the way to a point where I don’t have a big lean either way. Overall, this one is a complete guessing game for me.

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Free Picks: Dolphins (+10.5) and Over 44

Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 4:25 p.m. ET
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, PA

Spread Open: Rams (-3.5)
Current Spread: Rams (-3.5)

Over/under Total Open: 45.5
Current Over/under Total: 44

Public Money on Spread: 70% on Rams
Public Money on Over/under Total: 55% on Under

This is one of the few bets that I really like this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers are largely viewed as a mediocre team, but I don’t think that this is the case. They have had one of the toughest schedules in the league so far this season and are still sitting at 4-4. Their losses have come against possibly the four best teams in the league in the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens, and three of those four losses have been by less than 4 points.

Pittsburgh gets a game here against a Los Angeles Rams team that performed worse versus similar opponents and we are getting 3.5 points as a home underdog. While the Rams have been a great team at covering on the road over last year and half, I think this line offers a lot of value on the Steelers side.

Free Picks: Steelers (+3.5) and Under 44

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 4:25 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, WI

Spread Open: Packers (-7)
Current Spread: Packers (-5.5)

Over/under Total Open: 48
Current Over/under Total: 47

Public Money on Spread: 65% on Packers
Public Money on Over/under Total: 68% on Over

I don’t have a huge lean on this game, but it looks like there is some reverse line movement, as the Green Bay Packers are getting hammered by the public and the line keeps moving in the opposite direction. The Carolina Panthers are a much better team than people realize and the Packers are very susceptible to the run. I think that Christian McCaffrey runs wild here and keeps the game close.

Free Picks: Panthers (+5.5) and Over 47

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, November 10, 2019, at 8:20 p.m. ET
LevAT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX

Spread Open: Cowboys (-3)
Current Spread: Cowboys (-3)

Over/under Total Open: 45.5
Current Over/under Total: 47.5

Public Money on Spread: 54% on Cowboys
Public Money on Over/under Total: 51% on Over

This betting line is another one that offers a whole lot of value. The Dallas Cowboys have the worse record in this matchup and have had an easier schedule. After Dallas’ blazing hot start against the three worst teams in the league, they have gone 2-3 in their last five against opponents who are actually decent.

The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, have been a very good team that has only really lost to tough divisional opponents and the Kansas City Chiefs. I think the Vikings are the better team and, even playing on the road, this line is far too high.

Free Picks: Vikings (+3) and Over 47.5

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, November 11, 2019, at 8:15 p.m. ET
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, CA

Spread Open: 49ers (-5.5)
Current Spread: 49ers (-6)

Over/under Total Open: 44
Current Over/under Total: 47

Public Money on Spread: 65% on Seahawks
Public Money on Over/under Total: 84% on Over

I’m going to start out by saying that I’m probably just taking the points with the Seattle Seahawks because I’m a giant homer, but I don’t care.

The San Francisco 49ers have been a fantastic team with a fantastic defense so far this season, and the Seahawks have struggled on the defensive end and struggled to get pressure, but a 6-point line against a team with a 7-2 record seems a little bit too high especially considering it’s a divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. I think that the Seahawks have a legit shot at winning this game, so a 6-point spread is too good to pass up.

Free Picks: Seahawks (+6) and Over 47