Week 8 of the college football season is here, and with it comes more college football betting action. If you’re looking for college football betting picks, you’ve come to the right place.
Maryland… hahahahaha! Good job, good effort. The Terrapins are as fraudulent as they come and I apologize to anyone who tailed that play. The Florida Gators showed the importance of getting the best number and hopefully anyone who played it got the 14 that was available. The most annoying thing about that loss is that Florida was only out-gained by 54 yards and had six more first downs. This game was much closer than the scoreboard indicates, but at the end of the day, LSU’s big play ability shined through and resulted in a 14-point win.
A 2-2 week brings us to 13-19 on the year. There’s still a lot of football to be played and a lot of value to be had, so let’s get to breaking down some games for Week 8.
No. 3 Clemson (-24.5) at Louisville
Saturday, October 19, 2019, at 12 p.m. ET
This line is per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. This one is a little tough to stomach, but Louisville is vastly improved since the beginning of the season and are getting better every week. Scott Satterfield is doing good things with this team and it’s going to show against Clemson. Obviously, they’re completely outmanned and aren’t going to win this game, but 24.5 is too long.
The Cardinals have scored at least 38 points four times this season and the offense has some actual life. I have Louisville as the 15th best offense and SP+ has them as the 20th ranked offense. Clemson’s big edge is on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s no secret that they’re not what they’ve been in the past few years. They’ve still held every opponent under 300 yards this season, but I think that’s going to change this weekend against a pretty explosive Louisville offense. I have this game as Clemson (-14) and SP+ has Clemson (-17), which I think is more of what it should be.
This game will be much more entertaining than people expect, although we should still see a Clemson victory. I’ve got Clemson 38 and Louisville 21.
Free College Football Betting Pick: Louisville (+24.5)
No. 12 Oregon (-2.5) at No. 25 Washington
Saturday, October 19, 2019, at 3:30 p.m. ET
I wrote about how good Oregon was going to be at the beginning of the season and they’ve met every one of my expectations and should be undefeated if they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot against Auburn.
Oregon has held five straight opponents to seven points or fewer and are allowing just 3.9 yards per play on the season. Granted, they’ve played a fairly easy schedule thus far, but they aren’t struggling with these lesser teams and that inspires hope.
Washington has been fine, but nothing special. They lost to a bad Stanford team and the two games around that, against USC and Arizona, were much closer than the scoreboard indicates. They were actually out-gained and out-first-down-ed by USC, but 17th-string quarterback Matt Fink threw 3 interceptions. They had a defensive touchdown and “forced” 4 turnovers against Arizona, but only out-gained the Wildcats by 90 yards in a 24-point win.
The turnover luck is going to disappear against Oregon, as Justin Herbert has only thrown a single interception all season and takes great care of the ball. Oregon has gone over 500 yards three times this year and should approach that number again against an overrated Washington defense.
My prediction is Oregon 34 and Washington 24, covering the 2.5-point spread.
Free College Football Betting Pick: Oregon (-2.5)
No. 2 LSU (-18.5) at Mississippi State
Saturday, October 19, 2019, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State, MS
This is a play going against my numbers, but I feel pretty good about it. LSU’s offense is special and the defense is still a top 20 defense. Mississippi State’s offense has proven itself inept this year, surpassing 400 yards in only two games, one of which was against Louisiana-Lafayette, so it hardly counts.
Mississippi State is allowing 6.2 yards per play on defense, while LSU comes in averaging 8 yards per play. MSU comes into this game 120th in the country in sack rate, allowing their quarterback to be sacked on 11% of drop backs, resulting in a combined 59% completion rate and 8-6 TD-INT by the two quarterbacks.
MSU doesn’t have nearly enough firepower on offense to keep this close, and their defense isn’t going to be able to slow down the LSU freight train. Tigers win this one in a blowout, 45-17.
Free College Football Betting Pick: LSU (-18.5)
No. 18 Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
Saturday, October 19, 2019, at 4 p.m. ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
Baylor might be the second best team in the Big 12. They have a +2.2 yards-per-play differential and have top 25 offense and defense per SP+.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been pretty good, but they’re completely reliant on Chuba Hubbard and the run game. Baylor is thriving against the run this year, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry.
Matt Rhule has this Baylor Bears team playing really well and I think they go into Stillwater and pull off the upset, 35-31.
Free College Football Betting Pick: Baylor (+3.5)
Florida State at Wake Forest (-2)
Saturday, October 12, 2019, at 7:30 p.m. ET
In no way can I justify Wake Forest only being a 2-point favorite at home against this Florida State team. Willie Taggart still isn’t a good coach, James Blackman can’t beat out Alex freaking Hornibrook for a starting spot, the offensive line is worthless, the defense is getting torched to a tune of 32.2 points per game, and if it wasn’t for a 522-yard game against Louisville, they would have a negative yards-per-play differential. This FSU team is bad and I have zero faith that they can go on the road and compete with Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons, on the other hand, come into this game boasting the 12th highest scoring offense in the country. My numbers absolutely love this Wake Forest offense and have them ranked fifth in the country behind Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama, and LSU. It’s probably a little bit outlandish to have them up that high with those big boys, but in all fairness, there’s a pretty decent gap between those top five and the rest of the country. Where is Florida State? All the way down at 74th, a full 10 points worse than Wake Forest.
Jamie Newman is dealing with “soreness,” but who isn’t at this point in the season? He’s listed atop the depth chart after leaving the game last week (but returning later) with a shoulder injury, which is a good sign. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the country and Florida State isn’t going to be able to slow this offense. SP+ has Wake Forest as a 5.5-point favorite and I make them a 9.5-point favorite. I’ll take the Deacons in a landslide, 42-27.
Free College Football Betting Pick: Wake Forest (-2)