Best Tom Brady Player Props for Super Bowl LV
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing in Super Bowl LV on Sunday, February 7, 2021, and they’ll be taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. What are the best Tom Brady player props for Super Bowl LV and where can you find value? Let’s take a look.
Tom Brady Passing Yards
Depending on where you look, Brady’s passing yards player prop is up near 300 yards. At the time of writing on Thursday, January 28, there’s a line of 291.5 passing yards (-110) available from FanDuel Sportsbook, and that’s where you should be headed if you’re looking to bet the over. If you’re one who wants to take the under, BetMGM is offering a line of 300.5 passing yards, but it’s priced at -128 on the under.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines and best prices on your player props. A great place to start is right here on SharpSide and the individual NFL player props pages we have, including one dedicated to Tom Brady player props, best odds, past performance, and more.
This writer thinks there’s going to be plenty of passing in this game from both sides. You’ll have Brady slinging it around to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and others for the Buccaneers, and on the other side, it will be Patrick Mahomes chucking the ball to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and more.
If you ask me, Kansas City wins this game and there’s a lot of potential that they win it comfortably. The Chiefs are just that good and have such a high-powered offense that they’re likely going to score at will, even against a pretty good Tampa Bay defense. If that’s how this one goes, then it’s not going to be running the ball that keeps Tampa Bay within range. The Buccaneers are going to need to throw the ball, which is why I’d side with the over on 291.5 passing yards for this Brady player prop.
Don’t be surprised to see Brady throw the ball more than 40 times in this game and ending up with a similar stat line to the one we saw from him in Tampa Bay’s first playoff game of the season, which was against the Washington Football Team. In that game, Brady threw for 381 yards on 40 attempts, completing 22 of those. The completion percentage wasn’t too great at only 55%, but it shows you how effective Brady can be in terms of yardage. Tampa Bay has plenty of weapons, and we know those weapons can do two things pretty well. They can hit a deep ball for 40 or more yards, and they can take a short or intermediate route and tack on plenty of yards after the catch.
As more bettors get involved with placing their Super Bowl LV wagers, there’s a good chance this line moves up. If you like the over like I do, it can be beneficial to take the over on this Brady player prop early. If you like the under (don’t worry, I won’t hate you for going against me), then you might want to wait to see if this one moves up so that you can get a better line on the under. I would take the over on this Brady player prop up until 300.5 passing yards.
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Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns
Brady threw 40 touchdown passes during the regular season and another 7 TD passes in the postseason. Through the 19 games that he’s played this season, Brady has thrown 2 or more touchdowns in 16 of those 19 games. DraftKings Sportsbook has the over on 1.5 passing TDs for Brady priced at -215. I’ve seen worse prices in the sports betting market, and this one might seem like a slam-dunk player prop to wager on, but my suggestion is to avoid laying that much.
Not only is laying -215 a big price to lay, but there’s a chance this game ends up like Super Bowl XLVIII. That’s when the Seattle Seahawks rocked the Denver Broncos by a score of 43-8. Now, it may not be that bad of a beatdown, but it’s in the range of outcomes for the Chiefs to put up 35 or more points and Tampa Bay mustering to score just 14, with one of those being a rushing touchdown so that Brady is held to fewer than 2 passing touchdowns.
This is a Brady player prop that I’m going to wait on for now. What I’m waiting for is a little more positive odds on the over of 2.5 touchdowns for Brady. BetMGM has over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +150 available and FanDuel Sportsbook has it at +134 at the time of writing on Thursday, January 28, but I’d like to squeeze out a little extra and get +160 or better if possible. It likely won’t get there and will end up being no bet, but that’s what I’ll be looking to grab.
As for the under on 2.5 passing TDs from Brady, I don’t hate it if we didn’t have to pay up as much as we do – FanDuel Sportsbook has under 2.5 passing TDs at -172 and BetMGM is at -189. If something in the area of -140 was available, I might grab some, but like the over on 2.5 passing touchdowns, this one will likely be passed on.
Tom Brady Interceptions
If you’ve listened to the Gridiron Gamble Football Betting Podcast or follow me on Twitter, you’ll know I’m a Brady guy. I even picked him to not throw an interception in the NFC Championship and he made me eat my words because he threw three of them. This time, I’m going the other way.
Brady’s player prop to throw an interception is -155 at both DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM, and that’s the side I’ll be on for Super Bowl LV.
If I expect the Buccaneers to be passing the ball plenty in this game in an attempt to stay with the Chiefs, and if I see Brady finishing the game with 40 or more passing attempts, that means there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for a Brady pass to be intercepted. The Chiefs defense is good and it can likely generate some pressure on Brady, similar to how the Green Bay Packers did in the NFC Championship. Brady still has good pocket awareness, but at 43 years old it’s harder than ever for him to dip out of the way of pass rushers, which could cause some errant throws.
It’s the combination of Brady having to throw a lot in this game and the Chiefs being able to generate some sort of a pass rush that have me leaning to take Brady over 0.5 interceptions at -155.
Tom Brady Rushing Yards
You might not have thought we’d be diving into Tom Brady’s rushing yards player prop, but here we are. Am I getting a little too weird for my own good? Maybe, but also maybe not.
Brady’s player prop for rushing yards is over/under 0.5 yards, with the over offering a nice price that is, at time of writing, +165 at best (DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet).
Of course, Brady isn’t a running quarterback. He’s the complete opposite. But it’s also a QB who does extremely well when asked to execute a quarterback sneak in very short yardage. It would likely only take one QB sneak for Brady to hit the over on 0.5 rushing yards, or maybe he breaks pocket because the rush is too much on one play and stumbles forward for 2-3 yards. It is the Super Bowl, so all things go.
If you take a look at Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from RotoGrinders.com, Brady is projected for 2 rushing yards.
I don’t know if I’ll be betting this one or not just yet, but I’m intrigued. In the very least, I’ll monitor the price and see if it offers a bigger return. It’s certainly not a normal Brady player prop.
For more on Brady’s player props and to shop the best lines, check out Brady’s dedicated player props page on SharpSide.