Best NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Wednesday, March 4
Welcome to the Wednesday, March 4, edition of SharpSide’s NBA betting picks article. Today, we have a healthy slate of nine games, including Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans taking on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Those two players are subject to NBA player props we have picks for on Wednesday, plus we’re looking at a juicy total to attack.
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Wizards-Trail Blazers Over 241.5
For the first betting pick of Wednesday, we’ll be taking the over on 241.5 points in the Washington Wizards-Portland Trail Blazers game.
I don’t typically bet many over/under totals, but this is one that stuck out to me as an interesting play. Damian Lillard will be returning for this game and the Portland Trail Blazers should be back to full strength. The Washington Wizards are on the second night of a back-to-back and Bradley Beal has been on fire as of late.
I was looking at some of the trends this season between these teams and Wizards games have gone over 61% of the time, which makes for third best in the league this season. Lots of that is due to lack of defense and the pace they play at. The Blazers go over the total at 56.5% of the time for similar reasons as Washington. I dug deeper to see how Washington fares in back-to-back games. On the second end of the back-to-back, Washington games go over 75% of the time. Not only do they go over 75% of the time, but they go over by a +10.5-point margin.
This game lines up as a great back-and-fourth shootout. I typically get scared away from higher totals, but this is one that I won’t be staying away from.
Luka Doncic, SG, Dallas Mavericks
– Over 8.5 Rebounds (-121)
My next pick that I will be taking is a Luka Doncic player prop. Doncic is one of the top players in the league this season and you better believe you’re going to get a big game out of him on Wednesday night when Zion Williamson comes to town.
Doncic struggled against the Chicago Bulls because they gave him some fits defensively. but in a game against the New Orleans Pelicans with a total of 238.5, there won’t be a ton of defense played. I expect Doncic to grab a ton of boards in this matchup and that’s why I have the over on 8.5 rebounds.
If you look at the RotoGrinders Defense vs. Matchup Tool, you will see that in this matchup Doncic gets a boost in rebounds by 14.91%. This line at 8.5 rebounds still has some value at -121 and I’m not missing out on Doncic’s big game against Williamson and the Pelicans.
Zion Willamson, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
– Under 7.5 Rebounds (-134)
Whenever we can include a Zion Williamson player prop, we’re in. This pick is just a bet against Williamson playing on a back-to-back and his third game in four nights. I understand that this could be a great matchup for Williamson, but I think the rebounds is the best under to take. I’m just betting on the idea that Williamson will not get his normal 30-33 minutes on Wednesday and might get some shorter rotations.
These lines are already around his season averages, but there are still some things we are waiting to hear from the medical staff about Williamson’s status Wednesday. We saw when Williamson made 16 points in 3 minutes that the coach pulled him because of the minutes limit. This is New Orleans’ franchise player and they are going to be careful with him. I think this line is the correct line at 7.5 rebounds for around 30 minutes of Williamson. We have the possibility that Williamson has a minutes limit and you know if this blows out one way or another, Williamson will be the first guy off the court.
I typically bet the under when I see multiple paths to failure and this has that coming. Give me the under on 7.5 rebounds for Williamson.
NBA Record: 74-69 (+1.90 units)