Best NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Tuesday, March 3
For the Tuesday NBA slate, we’ve found three bets we like. One is a player prop involving D’Angelo Russell, and the other two bets are of the point spread variety.
D’Angelo Russell, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
– Over 4.5 Rebounds (+122)
The Minnesota Timberwolves made some moves to try and change the direction of the franchise and one guy that they are hoping can do that for them is D’Angelo Russell. For our first NBA betting pick of Tuesday, we’re eying a player prop for Russell.
Russell is getting all of the usage and has done a great job in this Minnesota offense. I’m going to be jumping on the over on 4.5 rebounds because this is a perfect matchup. If you look at Russell’s numbers, he has gone over 4.5 rebounds in four of his seven games with Minnesota. This game has a massive total that is all the way up to 247, which should lead to tons of rebound opportunities because of the pace that both these teams play at. This is a great matchup for Russell because combo guards see a boost in rebounds at 15.28% in this spot.
Everything lines up for Russell to have a great opportunity to over 4.5 rebounds on Tuesday. On top of that, we get this line at +122, which is a better return than I expected.
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Toronto Raptors (-4.5)
For our next pick, let’s tackle the first of two point spreads.
The Toronto Raptors are coming off of a three-game losing streak that included one loss to the Charlotte Hornets. I know Toronto has been struggling a ton, but I do think this is a good get-right spot against the Phoenix Suns. You can argue that the Raptors just had an off night and overlooked Charlotte after losing a big game against the Milwaukee Bucks. They talked up how big that game was and then Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet didn’t play against Charlotte. It could have been a spot where the Raptors overlooked their opponent and couldn’t turn it around during the game.
The Raptors are the sixth best team at covering against the point spread, currently covering 55% of the time. On the other side of the ball, the Suns only cover at around 45% of the time. When the Suns are at home, the number dips to only 35% of the time.
Devin Booker is currently slumping and the Raptors are great at defending opposing guards, which is supposed to be one of the Suns strengths. I think everything is lining up for a big game for the Raptors and I got them winning at -4.5 and would even take this line up to -6.5.
New Orleans Pelicans (-12)
I feel good about the New Orleans Pelicans even laying 12 points in this spot. I’m not a big believer in this current Minnesota Timberwolves team. They are terrible on defense and playing at one of the fastest paces in the entire league. Not only that, but the Timberwolves only cover against the spread around 35% of the time. I understand that this Timberwolves team is not the same but their defensive numbers and pace they play at don’t help their case.
On Tuesday, we get a Pelicans team that covers around 51% of the time, which isn’t ideal, but this team is strong with Jrue Holiday able to slow down D’Angelo Russell and Zion Williamson should have no one able to defend him. Plus, guys like Josh Hart and Brandon Ingram can light it up from three against a bottom 10 team at defending the three.
I just don’t see how this game isn’t a blowout and I have enough confidence that the second unit of the Pelicans can close this game out at -12.
NBA Record: 73-67 (+2.90 units)