Best NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Friday, March 6
It’s time for a new edition of the SharpSide NBA betting picks article, and this time it’s for Friday, March 6. It’s a very healthy slate with 10 games and 20 teams in action, and we’ve got four picks to bring your way. Three of the four are NBA player props, and the fourth pick is a point spread. Let’s get down to business, shall we?
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards
– Over 6.5 Assists (Even)
For the first pick for Friday, we’re looking at a player prop for Washington Wizards shooting guard Bradley Beal.
On Wednesday’s Live Betting Showdown on YouTube, I took the over on 5.5 assists for Beal against the Portland Trail Blazers. It was a winner and I’m going back the well with Beal again. The line is not at 5.5, though. It’s at 6.5 and we are grabbing it at even money.
This feels like a high assist total, but Beal is averaging 7.3 assists in his last three games and is playing in a game with a total of 247. The Atlanta Hawks are not only a fast-paced team that gives up a ton of points, but they are a great matchup for Beal. If you look at the RotoGrinders Defense vs. Matchup Tool, you will see that in this matchup, Beal will see a boost in assists by 16.41%. Not only that, but Beal plays around 40 minutes a night and the Wizards are pushing for the playoffs. Ish Smith is also expected to be out which just funnels more ball-handling duties Beal’s way because they’re using Jerome Robinson more for his defense. This is a great spot at even money to jump on the over of 6.5 assists for Beal.
Aaron Gordon, PF, Orlando Magic
– Over 5.5 Assists (+122)
For this next pick, I’ve got another assist player prop I’ll be betting on and it will be the over on 5.5 assists for Aaron Gordon. I guess the prop market is scared to get too aggressive with his number but they have slowly moved it up. I still see value on the over of 5.5 assists at +122 in this matchup, though. Not only would I like this matchup with Evan Fournier in, but it helps that he is doubtful for this game.
Gordon is seeing a massive usage bump right now and has started to play his natural position of PF more. It has been a perfect fit and he averaged 36.9 minutes last month. This is also a great matchup for Gordon because he will see a boost in assists around 15.17%. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at a top-five pace since the trade deadline and don’t play a ton of defense. This game has a total of 233, which is very high for an Orlando Magic game.
This is such a dream spot for Gordon and I love the value we’re getting on over 5.5 assists.
Jrue Holiday, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
– Under 4.5 Rebounds (-121)
A third NBA player prop we like for Friday involves Jrue Holiday of the New Orleans Pelicans.
I like the under on Holiday’s player prop bet of 4.5 rebounds. The Pelicans play in a lot of fast, competitive games and this should certainly be another one. Josh Hart is arguably one of the best rebounding guards in the league and his numbers have been down a bit over the past three games, while Holiday’s numbers have been up. Holiday has gone over 4.5 rebounds in his last three but I do think that’s an outlier, as even Zion Williamson has seemed to have some issues on the boards as well. I do think a lot of these player props for the Pelicans still have some opportunity to take advantage of and Holiday’s number could still be off.
This also rates out as a great matchup, with Holiday having to deal with Jimmy Butler. Butler against combo guards has other guards allowing a 19.31% decrease in rebounds compared to their average matchup. This seems like a spot where Holiday could struggle rebounding the ball and I’ll be taking the under.
Washington Wizards (-2)
Then finally, we’ll be taking the Washington Wizards on the point spread, who are laying 2 points against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday.
I like this spot for the Wizards at home. It’s a game that is very winnable and it’s important for their shot at the No. 8 seed in the playoff race. Not only that, but I like some of the changes that Washington has made with giving Bradley Beal all the usage and using Jerome Robinson more to help more on the defensive side of the ball.
It also helps that the Wizards, despite losing Thomas Bryant, have gotten healthier over the past month and the Hawks are a little banged up right now. Not only are the Hawks hurting a bit, but even Trae Young is questionable for this game.
I jumped on the line at Wizards (-2) and I think we can take it up to Wizards (-4.5). Obviously, if Young is out this line will move a ton and then it could get over-inflated the other way and we could maybe even middle the number. The Hawks are a terrible road team and with Young battling flu-like symptoms, we could have some natural value on this game. Even if Young does play, the Hawks are a worse team on the road and their power rating gets worse by double on the road compared to at home. The Hawks only cover on the road 32% of the time this season, which is the second worst in the league.
I think this is a great spot to take advantage of the Wizards at -2 and up to -4.5
NBA Record: 76-70 (+2.75 units)