AFC Championship Player Props: Bills at Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (photo credit: Imagn/USA TODAY Sports)

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Closing out Championship Weekend in the NFL is the AFC Championship between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Everyone is excited for Josh Allen and the Bills offense going blow for blow against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Looking at the point spread, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites at home. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite Bills vs. Chiefs player props.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 2.5 passing TDs

If you’re like us and think this game could very well go over the 54.5-point total, then you might want to look at picking up a ticket on over 2.5 passing touchdowns for this Patrick Mahomes player prop.

There are likely going to be plenty of points scored in this game and the Chiefs are favored, so the thought is that they’re going to get theirs. Now that we know Mahomes is good to go for Sunday, it’s more clear for how this one could go.

Mahomes and the Chiefs can score on anyone, at any time. With all of the weapons that Mahomes has at his disposal, and with much better the Chiefs are at throwing the ball than running it, throwing 3 or more touchdowns seems very much in the cards for Mahomes.

During the regular season, Kansas City had 40 passing TDs to 13 rushing TDs, so they’re much more likely to score by throwing the ball than running it. The Chiefs have big playmakers all over the field, too, which means that they can really score from anywhere on the field. Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman are incredibly fast receivers who can burn opponents for a deep ball or take a shorter route to the house. Travis Kelce has plenty of big-play ability as well. If Sammy Watkins suits up, he’s another capable wide receiver for Mahomes to target.

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Josh Allen – Over 32.5 rushing yards

It’s no secret that the Bills don’t run the ball much. They’d much prefer to pass the ball. When the Bills are gaining yards on the ground, it’s no surprise to see quarterback Josh Allen as the one running the ball.

We feel there’s going to be a lot of scoring in this game and plenty of possessions between the two teams. The more times the Bills have the ball, the more times we can see Allen take off and run. Allen’s also one of those running quarterbacks who doesn’t like to go down easy. He’ll take defenders head-on and fight for extra yards whenever possible.

The Bills will likely be dropping back and passing in this game, which means more traditional run plays of turning and handing to Devin Singletary or someone else should be minimal. Rather, Allen can break the pocket and take off. Don’t be surprised to see Allen running quite a bit in this game, both at times when a play breaks down or on designed QB runs.

Tyreek Hill – Over 77.5 receiving yards

The over/under 77.5 receiving yards for this Tyreek Hill player prop seems pretty low. For comparison, Kelce’s player prop for receiving yards is around 95.5, so Hill is almost 20 yards shorter. Yes, Hill will likely see plenty of Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White on Sunday, but Hill is a freak on the football field between his speed and elusiveness.

Hill is a player who can go over this number on one play, and now that Mahomes is confirmed good to go for Sunday, it makes us all that more confident on Hill being able to succeed in the passing game.

Travis Kelce – Anytime TD

With Travis Kelce‘s yardage prop being up around 95.5 yards, depending on where you look, we’ll target another Kelce player prop. For Kelce to score a touchdown in Sunday’s game, he’s -125, which feels a bit too short of a price.

We’ll keep beating this drum, but we think there will be plenty of points scored in this game, and we don’t mean field goals. We’re talking about touchdowns. If we’re betting on Mahomes to have more than 2.5 touchdowns, as we discussed above, someone is going to have to catch those touchdowns. Kelce is one of his favorite targets and has caught 12 touchdowns in 16 games this season.

Kelce is third in the league in red zone targets and touchdowns, but he also has the ability to catch a TD pass from outside of the 20.

John Brown – Over 52.5 receiving yards

We keep saying it, but there’s very likely going to be a lot of yards and a lot of scoring in this game. Both of these offenses are just too good for that not to happen. While many people will gravitate to Stefon Diggs‘ player props, we’re going to look at taking the over on another Bills wide receiver.

Diggs’ receiving yards player prop is in the ballpark of 95.5 yards, which is pretty high. Of course, Diggs can go over that, but it’s a tough pill to swallow to take the over on what amounts to a receiver getting nearly 100 yards.

Last week, John Brown caught 8 balls on 11 targets, so he’s very much back in the mix for Buffalo. He’s also a receiver who can get yards on just about any route. Brown can go deep with his speed, he can get open in close quarters on shorter routes, and he has the ability to break a big one from anywhere on the field. Brown isn’t known to be that big of a WR at 5’11” and about 180 pounds, but he plays bigger than that and has good ability to go up and get the ball.

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