Action Report: Sharp Bettors Liking Marlins, Mariners, and Diamondbacks for Thursday
Welcome to the SharpSide Action Report for Thursday, August 29, 2019, focused on baseball betting odds from around the MLB.
In this column, we’ll take a look at the day’s betting line movement in hopes of providing valuable insight as to where sharp money is flowing so that sports bettors can be better equipped to make winning sports betting decisions.
The three games we’ve identified for Thursday are the Cincinnati Reds at the Miami Marlins, the Seattle Mariners at the Texas Rangers, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
Reds Pitcher: Alex Wood
Marlins Pitcher: Robert Dugger
Thursday, August 29, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET
The Reds opened Thursday’s game against the Marlins as -175 road favorites, looking to complete a four game sweep with the majority of bettors on their side. The line has actually moved towards the Marlins, however, landing the Reds at just -160. It’s sensible to assume that the prior three games are having some impact on the perceptions of bettors, as they probably see the Reds as a surging team while the Marlins are struggling.
The public backing of Alex Wood is curious (he has an ERA over 6.00 this season) but it makes more sense when you look at his counterpart in Robert Dugger. Dugger has made just one start in his MLB career, giving up 6 runs in 5 innings to the Mets earlier this month. Dugger doesn’t stand out as a top prospect or anything like that, but he’s probably a lot more competent than the average bettor seems to realize. Even after three straight losses, the line movement suggests that the Marlins have a better chance to win than most people think.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Mariners Pitcher: Felix Hernandez
Rangers Pitcher: Lance Lynn
Thursday, August 29, 2019, at 8:05 p.m. ET
Globe Life Park
The Rangers opened Thursday’s home game with the Mariners as -165 favorites, and the number has held in place with most bettors siding with the Rangers moneyline. The total has moved from just over 10 to nearly 11, however, and there’s good reason to believe that sharp bettors are targeting the over, specifically against Lance Lynn. The moneyline has also been moving up and down throughout the day, and the reverse line movement towards the Mariners indicates that some amount of sharp money is behind them.
Lance Lynn was underrated for most of 2019, but perception seems to have caught up with him, and it’s maybe even gone too far even though he’s now clearly one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. There’s nothing really specific here that’s causing the Mariners offense to be overlooked against him, but for whatever reason, bettors seem to strongly prefer Lynn in this spot to anything else in the game.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Dodgers Pitcher: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Diamondbacks Pitcher: Merrill Kelly
Thursday, August 29, 2019, at 9:40 p.m. ET
The Dodgers opened Thursday’s game in Arizona as -190 favorites, but have fallen slightly to -185. The total has also risen slightly from its opening number of 9, and all indications are that Hyun-Jin Ryu is continuing to see sharp money go against him, just as he has all season long. Ryu has struggled somewhat lately, but his ERA (2.00) still far exceeds his actual capability as a pitcher. The Diamondbacks are playing this game without probably their best offensive player in Ketel Marte, but even so, sharp bettors still clearly seem to think they’re undervalued against the overvalued Ryu.