(photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

Rangers Pitcher: Lance Lynn
Blue Jays Pitcher: Thomas Pannone

Tuesday, August 13, 2019, at 7:07 p.m. ET
Rogers Centre
Toronto, ON

The Toronto Blue Jays crushed the Texas Rangers on Monday night with a 19-3 win, and sharp bettors look to be targeting them again on Tuesday. The Blue Jays opened at +130 and have fallen to +120, even with most of the bets being on the Rangers side. More notably, however, is the movement to the total, which has fallen to an even larger degree despite lopsided over action. The total opened at nearly 10, but is now down to just above 9.

One of the bettors who is targeting the under in this game is SharpSide’s J.J. Apricena, and you can check out his analysis in the video below.

Lance Lynn continues to be an underrated commodity in 2019, performing at an ace-like level without getting much recognition. On the other side of the game, the Blue Jays are using a far less competent pitcher in Thomas Pannone, but the lefty draws a favorable matchup against a Rangers lineup that has been worse against left-handed pitching this season. It seems as though bettors may overreacting to last night’s 22-run game and undervaluing the pitchers in this one.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians

Red Sox Pitcher: Chris Sale
Indians Pitcher: Mike Clevinger

Tuesday, August 13, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET
Progressive Field
Cleveland, OH

Sharp bettors were targeting the Boston Red Sox and the over on Monday night, but Tuesday’s game is an entirely different set up. Chris Sale is coming off a 13-strikeout, 8-shutout inning performance, and sharp money looks to be moving strongly in his favor on Tuesday. As with the aforementioned Blue Jays and Rangers game, the total movement is clearly the most visible and relevant piece of information.

The over/under for Tuesday’s game opened at just below 9, but has now dropped all the way below 8 despite nearly 2/3 of the total bets being on the over (via Sports Insights). It’s really not clear why the total opened as high as it did, but the weather (moderate temperatures with winds blowing in) is probably having some impact on the line movement. The moneyline has also moved in Boston’s favor (from +100 to -110), indicating that this is more about Sale than it is about Cleveland Indians starter Mike Clevinger. On top of all of this, the Indians will once again be without Yasiel Puig (suspension) which makes for an easier matchup for Sale as well.

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers

Mariners Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
Tigers Pitcher: Matt Boyd

Tuesday, August 13, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET
Comerica Park
Detroit, MI

Matt Boyd will take the mound for the Detroit Tigers against the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night, looking to bounce back from what was by far his worst game of the 2019 season. Boyd was blasted for 5 runs over just 2+ innings, and his ERA now sits at 4.16. Boyd has an incredibly high strikeout rate (12 per 9 innings) and low walk rate (2 per 9 innings) so there’s good reason to expect his run prevention to improve going forward. Simply put, he’s been fairly unlucky this season.

The Tigers opened this game as -145 favorites and have moved to -155, with the betting being split evenly on the two teams. The total once again is the important element here, moving from just below 9.5 to just above 8.5 despite very strong action on the over. Casual bettors obviously aren’t recognizing just how good Boyd is, but they also seem to be underrating Yusei Kikuchi as well, who has had a very difficult rookie season for the Mariners. In addition, these teams have drawn Eric Cooper as the home plate umpire, which should provide a significant boost to the strike zone for both of the pitchers.